The Islamic Republic’s continuous aggression against Bahrain, Kuwait, and other GCC states should leave no room for illusions. Despite the recent Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and the Islamic Republic, brokered with the support of Pakistan and Qatar to reduce tensions and protect freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran has once again chosen escalation over diplomacy. Instead of building confidence, it has continued launching missiles and drones, attacking commercial shipping, and threatening the security of its neighbors.
Earlier this week, attacks on Gulf oil tankers triggered a United States response. Iran then retaliated by attacking Bahrain and Kuwait while claiming it was targeting American interests. Every missile launched towards the Gulf undermines trust. Every drone attack widens the gap between Tehran’s words and its actions. If the Islamic Republic cannot respect the spirit of an agreement only weeks after it was reached, how can anyone expect future agreements to succeed?
A Pattern That Cannot Be Ignored
The Gulf has consistently demonstrated that it seeks stability, economic development, and good neighborly relations. GCC states have repeatedly supported dialogue and regional cooperation. Yet those efforts have too often been met with aggression instead of reciprocity.
The credibility gap did not emerge overnight. It is the result of decades of interference in Arab affairs, support for armed groups across the region, attacks on international shipping, and repeated violations of the sovereignty of neighboring states. The latest attacks reinforce a pattern that has made trust increasingly difficult to sustain. Perhaps the greatest obstacle to any future agreement is no longer military. It is credibility.
Who Exactly Is Speaking for the Islamic Republic Today?
Is it the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps? Is it the hardliners? Is it Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf? Or is it Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, who has himself faced fierce criticism from hardline supporters for engaging in negotiations with the United States? Different factions continue to send different messages, leaving both the region and the international community wondering whether anyone in Tehran truly speaks with one authority. If the Islamic Republic itself cannot present a unified voice, how can its neighbors have confidence that any agreement reached today will still be respected tomorrow?
Four months after the death of Ali Khamenei, fundamental questions surrounding the country’s leadership remain unanswered. The mourning ceremonies continue, yet many basic questions remain unresolved. Mojtaba Khamenei, has not made a single public appearance. Rather than projecting confidence, the Islamic Republic projects uncertainty.
Ironically, the greatest victims of this uncertainty continue to be the Iranian people themselves. For years they have endured economic hardship, political repression, and international isolation because of the decisions made by their leaders.
Trust Must Be Earned
The Islamic Republic frequently accuses others, particularly the United States, of spreading lies and misinformation. Yet its own contradictions are becoming impossible to ignore. There have been no meaningful confidence building measures. Instead of reassuring its neighbors, it continues threatening them, launching missiles and drones, and undermining diplomacy.
Iranian officials have spent decades promoting anti-American rhetoric while senior figures have repeatedly called for the elimination of President Donald Trump. At the same time, Tehran expects Washington to tolerate attacks against its allies, accept threats to international shipping, and ignore its military ambitions. That is simply not how the world works. The United States remains the world’s leading power, and the GCC countries are longstanding American allies.
None of this means diplomacy should be abandoned. Dialogue remains preferable to conflict, but dialogue requires trust, and trust cannot be built on missiles, drones, propaganda, and broken promises. The Gulf has consistently shown that it wants peaceful relations with all of its neighbors, including the Islamic Republic. If Tehran genuinely wants a different future, it must change its behavior rather than its rhetoric. Respect for sovereignty, adherence to agreements, and genuine confidence building measures must come first.
Until then, one question will continue to overshadow every diplomatic initiative: how can the Gulf trust a neighbor that continues attacking the very countries it claims it wants better relations with? With every missile launched, every drone fired, and every promise broken, the Islamic Republic further isolates itself. Trust cannot be demanded. It must be earned.