It doesn’t matter whether the latest attacks against Saudi oil facilities came from Iraq or Yemen – whether they were launched by Kataib Hezbollah or the Houthis, it is obvious to us all that these attacks were authorized and planned in Tehran.
The latest attacks have grabbed news headlines because strikes against the world’s most important oil installations endanger the economy and international oil supplies. Yet there have been hundreds of such attacks; including against airport facilities, Saudi cities and even the holy sites in Mecca and Medina. This is in addition to attacks against oil tankers and the use of militias and terrorists to undermine security in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and elsewhere.
Whether or not the world knows it, Iran believes it is already at war against the Arab world and the West. Iran launches these attacks because it believes that it can get away with it and that it won’t face consequences. On the contrary, Iran seems to believe that with such provocations it can force America and Europe to offer it concessions, even after it has restarted its nuclear programme. Tehran appears to think that the more aggressively and violently it behaves, the more it will win in some kind of future deal; no matter how many innocent people it kills or how much this damages the world economy.
We should therefore expect to see hundreds more such attacks, and they will perhaps get worse – UNLESS Iran is forced to realize that any such attacks against peace-loving states will incur a very high cost. Whatever happened to the UN? In the past these aggressions would have resulted in decisive action by Security Council members. European states try to appease Iran; yet if you appease a bully, they only get more violent and more ambitious. Meanwhile, the US makes threats, but never follows through on them.
These attacks came immediately after Trump sacking John Bolton and asking President Rouhani to meet him. This sent a signal to Iran that the strategy of maximum pressure was dead; especially after America kept granting sanctions waivers to key states like China, India and Iraq, so that Tehran could continue to sell its oil and use the money to fund regional terrorism and militancy.
Iran’s Ayatollahs are now out of control. They must quickly be made to realise that when they attack great nations like Saudi Arabia, or fund terrorism in Bahrain and Iraq, or attack the ships of non-aggressive states like Japan and Norway; the full weight of international justice will land on their heads.
Meanwhile, states like Britain, France and Germany should acknowledge that Iran is not a normal state which they can do business with and which will play by the rules. Iran promised Britain that the tanker that was stopped in Gibraltar would not be used to transfer oil to the terrorist, genocidal Assad regime. Yet a week later, this same ship turned up on the coast of Syria. Iran lies so naturally and easily, that diplomats who should know better are deceived again and again.
Until the world comes to its senses, the GCC states and the Arab world as a whole should show a united face to Iran and the world, forcing acknowledgement that such aggressions can never be tolerated. Our thoughts and prayers are with the people of Saudi Arabia. Yet our thoughts and prayers alone are insufficient if we don’t want to see such terrorist crimes – over and over again – targeted against us all.