Preliminary analysis of the final results of the 2014 Bahrain parliamentary elections

With three quarters of the 40 parliamentary seats going to new entrants, the biggest winners seem to be younger candidates campaigning on pro-youth issues and technocratic figures who have been promoting progressive agendas for boosting the economy and improving living standards.

 

The result is a disaster for the Sunni political societies, which emerge with only three seats; with independent Islamist figures like Jassim al-Saeedi and Mohammed Buqais having lost their seats in the first round.

 

In short, the 2014 elections favoured those who showed they had the skills and experience to address the issues that mattered to ordinary people concerned about jobs, housing and living standards; and penalized those who promoted ideology ahead of policies.

 

This was a good result for Bahrain and shows an impressive growth in political awareness, indicating that the general public gave careful consideration to their choices and gave their representatives a strong mandate for change and reform.

 

Incumbent MPs

 

Headline statistic: Only ten MPs returning to Parliament, leaving exactly three-quarters of the 40 seats to be filled by new faces. This is after six MPs were beaten in the second round:

 

• In 1^st Northern, MP Ali al-Dirazi was only 6 votes in front of Fatima al-Asfour in the first round, so it was no surprise to see Fatimah beat him in the second round.

• There was a similar situation for MP Ali Shamtout in 3^rd Capital. He was 43 votes ahead of businessman Adel Abdulhamid who beat him in the second round, having spent that last three weeks campaigning hard to get ahead.

• MP Hassan al-Dossary lost the second round in 3^rd Northern after winning in the first round, 1437 votes to 1086, against Hamad al-Dossary. Many observers had been indicating that locals would unite behind his rival, Hamad al-Dossary as a result of widespread local frustration regarding what Hassan achieved as an MP, particularly on the housing issue.

• In the contest between two sitting MPs, and members of rival Sunni political societies in 10^th Northern, MP Mohammed al-Ammadi (Minbar) came out on top against Asalah’s MP Khalid al-Maloud, giving Minbar their only win.

• Asalah’s MP Adnan al-Maliki was beaten again in the second round by local favourite Khalid al-Shaer in 1^st Southern.

• Unsurprisingly, Mohammed al-Ahmed beat MP Isa al-Qadhi in 2^nd Southern after also beating him in the first round.

• The seven MPs who won in the second round had all won their first round contest, but failed to win outright. They were: Adel al-Asoumi (1^st Capital), Ahmed Qarratah (2^nd Capital), Abdulrahman Bumajid (4^th Capital), Ali al-Atish (6^th Capital), Abbas al-Madhi (6^th Muharraq), Mohammed al-Ammadi (10^th Northern) and Abdullah Bin-Huwail (7^th Southern)

 

Women candidates

 

Headline statistic: Women win three seats in Parliament, out of the six female candidates who made it to the second round

 

• Women winning three of the six seats was not a bad result in the circumstances. Wafa Ajoor (5^th Capital), Fawzia Zainal (5^th Southern) and Zainab Abdulamir (7^th Capital) had all come second in the first round, so it was not surprising they failed to win the seat.

• Rua al-Haiki (6^th Northern and Jamila al-Sammak (12 Northern) won the second round after convincing wins in the first round.

• The third seat went to Fatima al-Asfour who lost by just six votes to incumbent MP Ali al-Dirazi in the first round. 

• It is interesting to note that all three women are Shia and have won in constituencies that are broadly pro-opposition in orientation, although none of these women are known to be aligned with the opposition.

• Rua al-Haiki – based on her background in business and consultancy – highlighted her experience in addressing unemployment and promoting the economy; Fatimah al-Asfour was contesting on a pro-family agenda and Jamila al-Sammak has highlighted the importance of promoting national unity and reconciliation.

 

Bad result for political societies

 

Headline statistic: Just three seats in Parliament for the major Sunni political societies: Two for Asalah, one for Minbar

 

• This was a worse night than expected for the political societies after the hard-campaigning Ali Bufursan beat Minbar’s candidate, Saadi Mohammed, in 1^st Muharraq.

• Minbar and Asalah were fighting for the same seat in both 10^th Northern and 7^th Muharraq. Minbar’s Mohammed al-Ammadi won on 10^th Northern and Asalah’s Ali al-Muqla won in 7^th Muharraq.

• Minbar’s Adel al-Dhawadi came second place in the first round to Isa al-Turki in 8^th Northern and Asalah’s Adnan al-Maliki trailed to Khalid al-Shaer in 1^st Southern in the first round. The results for the second round came in in exaclly the same order, leaving the Asalah and Minbar candidates out of Parliament.

• The third seat for the political societies came in 3^rd Southern with Abdulhalim Murad having won outright in the first round.

• The other societies within the Al-Fateh Coalition – Mithaq and Wasat – lost all the three seats they were contesting in the second round.

 

A defeat for the Islamists

 

Headline statistic: Sunni and Shia Islamist figures have been reduced to a small minority; with only around seven figures remaining in Parliament with a transparently Islamist orientation.

 

• This was the worst possible result for the Sunni Islamist societies, ahead of the second round they were guaranteed three seats, with two constituencies where only Asalah and Minbar were contesting and with Asalah’s Abdulhalim Murad already having won his seat. The maximum number of seats they could win was six. In the event they came out with just three seats and were defeated in all the seats where a political society was contesting against an independent. 

• Even worse for the Islamists, two of their most outspoken independent MPs Jassim al-Saeedi and Mohammed Buqais were severely defeated in the first round.

• However, there are figures who may align themselves with the Sunni societies in the second round, the Sunni Islamic candidate Abdulhamid al-Najjar won in 9^th Northern, having come second place in the first round, and Sunni clerics Anas Buhindi (6^th Southern) and Nabil Balooshi (10^th Capital) came out on top having competed against a host of rival candidates.

• Shia figures Majid al-Asfour and Majid al-Majid may also tactically align themselves with the Sunni MPs when Islamic issues are being debated. 

• However, this is a Parliament that is broadly liberal and progressive in orientation, with pro-youth candidates, pro-business candidates and civil society candidates easily outnumbering these clearly Islamist figures.

 

Good result for youth candidates

 

Headline statistic: Approximately one third of the new Parliament is made up of younger figures who campaigned on issues specifically to benefit young people, like unemployment, youth facilities and homes for young families.

 

• Several of the figures who were campaigning on a pro-youth agenda, and who are young figures themselves have made it into Parliament.

• Khalid al-Shaer and journalist Mohammed al-Ahmed (1^st & 2^nd Southern) won convincing victories over strong rivals; Standing MP Hassan al-Dossary was defeated by his former campaign manager Hamad al-Dossary, who used his campaigning experience and ability to engage with the youth and use new forms of media.

• Young figures like Jalal Kadhim and Ghazi Al Rahmah won in pro-opposition areas using campaigns strongly geared towards the youth. 

• We shouldn’t also forget the young women Rua al-Haiki, Fatimah al-Asfour and Jamila al-Sammak; who are younger figures and waged campaigns that sought to engage young people. 

• Ali al-Aradi, a consultant in the Bahrain Chamber for Conflict Resolution (5^th Northern); Nasser al-Qaseer, a Basketball Association official (5^th Capital) and Mohammed Jaafar (9^th Capital) can also be seen in the context of the “injection of new blood” that so many people were saying the Parliament needed.

 

Pro-business and technocratic candidates

 

Headline statistic: Around a third of the new Parliament comes from a business background or comes in with technocratic skills and an agenda for an agenda for addressing macroeconomic challenges

 

• Businessman Mohammed al-Maarifi was always the favourite in 4^th Southern and won both rounds convincingly. In 3^rd Capital Adel Abdulhamid, a prominent business figure, succeeded in displacing MP Ali Shamtout.

• Incumbent MP Adel al-Asoumi is also a businessman and business figure Osamah al-Khajah always looked like the strongest candidate in the 7^th Capital seat. Several others also come from a business background.

• Business consultant Rua al-Haiki and Chamber for Conflict Resolution Consultant Ali al-Aradi won their seats on a strongly technocratic agenda, for addressing unemployment, promoting the economy and improving living standards.

• Khalid al-Shaer, Ali Bufursan, Ghazi Al Rahmah and Mohammed al-Ahmed also campaigned on similar issues, with all these figures showing a sophisticated approach to setting out their policy platforms, spelling out how they would address complex issues like unemployment, housing, economic growth, public debt and supporting small businesses. 

• However, all these figures are new to Parliament, so their ability to address these issues in practice remains to be seen. 

 

Second round contest at a glance

 

1^st Capital

Manama northeast coast, Diplomatic Area, Houra, Qudaybiya

Registered voters: 6,317    

% first round turnout: 72.0%

Adel al-Asoumi (MP) – winner

Khalid Sulaybikh

 

2^nd Capital

Central Manama, Burhama, Salehiya, Suwayfiyah

Registered voters: 8,361     

% first round turnout: 33.3%

Ahmed Qaratah (MP) – winner

Hashim al-Alawi

 

3^rd Capital

Sanabis, Karbabad, Seef

Registered voters: 10,225    

% first round turnout: 9.8%

Adel Abdulhamid – winner

Ali Shamtout (MP)

 

4^th Capital

Fateh, Juffair, Ghuraifa, Mina Salman, Umm AlHassam, Abu-Ghazzal, Adliya

Registered voters: 7,014     

% first round turnout: 62.3%

Abdulrahman Bumjaid (MP) – winner

Ibrahim al-Mannai (Mithaq)

 

5^th Capital

Bilad al-Qadeem, Zinj, Salmaniya, Segaiya, Mahooz and Abu Asheera

Registered voters: 7,782    

% first round turnout: 32.3%

Nasser al-Qaseer- winner

Wafa Ajoor

 

6^th Capital

Khamis, Musalla, Tashan, Abu Baham, Adhari, North Sehla, South Sehla

Registered voters: 10,946    

% first round turnout: 26.2%

Ali Hassan Ahmed al-Atish (MP, Rabitah) – winner

Abdullah al-Kooheji 

 

7^th Capital

Jid Ali, Jurdab

Registered voters: 10,695     

% first round turnout: 46.1%

Osamah al-Khajah – winner

Zainab Abdulamir

 

8^th Capital – no second round vote

Nabih Saleh, Sitra, Industrial Area, Marqoban, Mahaza

Registered voters: 9,372

Dr. Majid al-Asfour – winner (default)

 

9^th Capital

Southern Sitra, East Eker

Registered voters: 9,591   

% first round turnout: 9.6%

Ibrahim al-Asfour

Mohammed Jaffar – winner

 

10^th Capital

West Eker, Sanad and South Isa Town

Registered voters: 10,046    

% first round turnout: 49.4%

Nabil al-Balooshi – winner

Ali Ishaqi

 

1^st Muharraq

Busaiteen

Registered voters: 8,071     

 % first round turnout: 85.4%

Ali Bufarsan – winner

Saadi Mohammed (Minbar)

 

2^nd Muharraq

Muharraq central

Registered voters: 7,563     

% first round turnout: 79.5%

Ibrahim al-Hammadi – winner

Abdulmunim al-Eid

 

3^rd Muharraq

Muharraq central, Qalali

Registered voters: 7,563    

% first round turnout: 77.6%

Jamal Buhassan – winner

Ahmed Al Binali (Wasat)

 

4^th Muharraq – no second round vote

Muharraq central

Registered voters: 7,904    

% first round turnout: 78.7%

Isa al-Kooheji (MP) – winner (1^st round)

 

5^th Muharraq

Northeast Muharraq; Amwaj Islands; Qalali

Registered voters: 7,199    

% first round turnout: 87.6%

Mohammed al-Jowder – winner

Khalid Bu-Anq

 

6^th Muharraq

Dair & Samaheej

Registered voters: 7,762     

% first round turnout: 11.1%

Abbas al-Madhi (MP) – winner

Nabil al-Ashiri

 

7^th Muharraq

Arad

Registered voters: 13,204     

% first round turnout: 74.2%

Ali al-Muqla (Asalah) – winner

Nasir al-Fadhalah (Minbar)

 

8^th Muharraq – no second round vote

Southern Muharraq; Hidd

Registered voters: 9,065   

 % first round turnout: 85.9%

Abdulrahman Bu-Ali – winner (1^st round)

 

1^st Northern

Hilla, Meqsha, Karranah, Janusan, Barbar, Diraz

Registered voters: 10,749    

 % first round turnout: 8.1%

Fatimah al-Asfour – winner

Ali al-Dirazi (MP)

 

2^nd Northern

Markh, Bani Jamra, Diraz

Registered voters: 6,970     

% first round turnout: 8.0%

Jalal Kadhim – winner

Hussain al-Hamar

3^rd Northern

Budaiya, Haniniyah, Jasra, Hamala,

Registered voters: 6,082     

% first round turnout: 64.4%

Hamad al-Dossary – winner

Hassan al-Dossary (MP)

 

4^th Northern

Jidhafs, Jablat Habshi, North Sehla, Qadam, Abu-Quwwah

Registered voters: 9,277    

 % first round turnout: 27.0%

Ghazi Al Rahmah – winner

Nawaf al-Sayed

 

5^th Northern

Qadam, Hajar, Abu Saiba, Shakhurah, Muqaba, Diraz, Sar, Markh

Registered voters: 10,388  

%  turnout: 16.3%

Ali al-Aradi – winner

Jamil al-Rowaei

 

6^th Northern

Aali

Registered voters: 10,704     

% first round turnout: 20.2%

Rua al-Haiki – winner

Mohammed Al Asfour

 

7^th Northern

Al-Qurayah, Janabiyah, Buri, Hamalah, Dumistan

Registered voters: 10,245     

% first round turnout: 15.1%

Majid al-Majid – winner

Mohammed Bin-Rajab

 

8^th Northern

Hamad Town

Registered voters: 8,521      

% first round turnout: 71.9%

Isa Turki – winner

Adel al-Dhawadi (Minbar)

 

9^th Northern

Hamad Town

Registered voters: 12,315      

% first round turnout: 40.5%

Abdulhamid Abdulhussain al-Najjar – winner

Hassan al-Alawi

 

10^th Northern

Hamad Town

Housing blocks: 1218, 1214, 1212, 1208

Registered voters: 10,552     

% first round turnout: 73.5%

Mohammed al-Ammadi (MP Minbar) – winner

Khalid al-Maloud (MP Asalah)

 

11^th Northern – no second round vote

Hamad Town, Dar Kulayb

Registered voters: 12,341     

% first round turnout: 43.7%

Jamal Dawoud – winner (1^st round)

 

12^th Northern

Dumistan, Luzi, Karzakan, Malikiyah, Sadad, Shahrakan, Safariyah

Registered voters: 11,323     

% first round turnout: 21.7%

Jamila al-Sammak – winner

Ammad al-Sayed

1^st Southern

Isa Town

Registered voters: 7,998    

% first round turnout: 71.3%

Khalid al-Shaer – winner

Adnan al-Maliki (MP Asalah)

2^nd Southern

Isa Town, Zayid Town

Registered voters: 8,212      % first round turnout: 70.5%

Mohammed al-Ahmed – winner

Isa al-Qadhi (MP) 

 

3^rd Southern – no second round vote

North Riffa, Hajiat

Registered voters: 7,227     

% first round turnout: 84.3%

Abdulhalim Murad (MP Asalah) – winner (1^st round)

 

4^th Southern

Nuwaidrat, Sanad, Hajiat

Registered voters: 8,589    

 % first round turnout: 79.3%

Mohammed al-Maarifi – winner

Abdulhamid al-Shaikh

 

5^th Southern

West Riffa, Haniniyah, Bukuwarah

Registered voters: 8,788    

 % first round turnout: 85.4%

Khalifa al-Ghanim – winner

Fawzia Zainal

 

6^th Southern

Northern Riffa, Bukuwarah

Registered voters: 8,262      

% first round turnout: 84.0%

Anas Buhindi – winner

Mohammed al-Buainain (Mithaq)

 

7^th Southern

Nuwaidrat, West Riffa, Rawdhah

Registered voters: 8,304    

 % first round turnout: 80.8%

Abdullah Bin-Huwail (MP) – winner

Ahmed al-Dossary

 

8^th Southern

Southern Sitra, Ma’amir, East Riffa, Awali, Mazrowiyah, Askar, Jaw, Dawr

Registered voters: 6,451     

% first round turnout: 82.1%

Dhiyab al-Noaimi – winner

Mohammed al-Sisi

 

9^th Southern

Southwest coast; Sakhir

Registered voters: 5,090     

% first round turnout: 77.7%

Mohsin al-Bakri – winner

Mohammed al-Dossary

 

10^th Southern – no second round vote

Southern Bahrain, Dawr & Hawar islands

Registered voters: 2,368   

% first round turnout: 45.3%

Ahmed al-Mulla – winner (1^st round)