13th Aug, 2013 –
There is one prediction we can make if Egypt ever gains enough stability to re-hold presidential elections: It doesn’t matter who will win, the country will remain paralyzed and ungovernable – with the other half of the nation rejecting the result and taking to the streets.
Instability breeds instability, so every time an Egyptian leadership tries to restore order, they resort to force, anger citizens even further and intensify protests and social discontent. The result is indefinite political stalemate and an increasingly polarized society which is becoming more impoverished.
In Libya we have a weak Government unable to effectively challenge the militias and armed Islamist groups which have de facto control over substantial parts of the country. Each time the violence gets out of control we see a Government reshuffle or other ineffective moves which bring in a new batch of inexperienced and incompetent politicians, delegitimizing the faltering political process even further, while investors keep their distance.
The prospects look dire for Syria, while next door in Lebanon there is a sectarian-based governing system which has been dysfunctional for many years, because the standoff between Hezbollah and their opponents prevents the formation of any kind of effective Government. Sectarian tensions have also thwarted any kind of effective political system in Iraq. Corrupt politicians waste time settling scores while the violence continues to escalate.
Kuwait and Jordan may be in a much better situation than many of these other states, but they have still seen parliamentary elections every few months, the collapse of successive Governments, continuing boycotts by various political groups, and democratic processes which have failed to deliver on their promised aspirations of competent, accountable and representative government.
Just a few years ago, Yemen was the only example of a failing state in the region; now there are several Arab nations vying to join this increasingly-less-exclusive club of failed states.
One factor which has intensified these political crises is the politicization of citizens, who themselves have little political awareness. So tens of thousands of angry Egyptians turn out on the streets of Cairo, either in support or opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood, but with little awareness of the bigger political picture, or of the consequences of continual protests.
It is ironic that in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere in recent months, protesters have come out on to the streets protesting that their new leaders have achieved very little – when one of the reasons why little has been done is that everything has been forced to a halt by continual protests.
Meanwhile tourists and international businesses stay away, because of the poor security situation caused by protesters complaining that the economy is in a bad state.
In Bahrain, protesters say they want jobs, economic opportunities, better services, affordable housing and greater social justice. However, month-after-month of protests has severely damaged the economy, meaning that there is much less revenue and fewer jobs to go round. All over the country we see frozen housing projects as a result of the unrest.
We can sympathize with people protesting for reform, economic opportunities and social justice, whether in Egypt, Bahrain or Yemen. However, when the result of all of these protests is the thwarting of these aspirations, severe harm to the economy and polarization of society; it becomes reasonable to ask whether such protest movements are in the national interest, and whether they really serve the interests of the most vulnerable parts of society.
So if we can now count around five or six Arab states which have moved into this ‘ungovernable’ category; largely as a result of prolonged social unrest; it is right for other Arab states to ask themselves what they can do to insulate themselves from such instability.
We would argue that reform and political renewal should continue, because it was the failure to reform which sparked protests in many of these countries, so the answer is not a lapse into dictatorship and autocracy.
Governments should protect the rights of citizens, but this should include the rights of stability, safety and economic progress. Therefore, those who break the law, incite civil unrest or attempt to damage the national economy should be subject to proportionate and reasonable measures. A minority determined to subvert the status quo should not be allowed to terrorize and obstruct the majority of law-abiding and peace-loving citizens.
Political dialogue should be encouraged as a way of addressing political crises. All major groups should be encouraged to address their grievances round a table and not through score-settling on the streets.
Where sectarian, ethnic, tribal and religious tensions exist, this should also be addressed through dialogue and reconciliation. It is not acceptable for a particular group to assert that it is the majority and therefore has a right to dominate all other groups. Where possible, sectarian affiliation should not be the basis for political affiliation, as this is a recipe for a polarized and ungovernable society, as we have seen in too many cases.
Bahrain is a good example of a country which has weathered a prolonged political crisis, but retains an incredible sense of normality. For most people in most parts of the country we go about our lives unaffected, if there is rioting or blocked roads we go around them and think little of them.
However, at the same time we recognize that these events have held us back politically and economically so we have a responsibility to try and address political grievances through dialogue and reconciliation.
For those calling for new rounds of protests, bigger demonstrations, boycotting the 2014 elections, or rallies in support of particular Ayatollahs – we warn of the danger of ungovernability that has affected other nearby states.
Even those who are protesting because they want a better future must consider whether their actions are destroying prospects of such a better future. We must all take responsibility for building a united, prosperous and forward-looking Bahrain, before it is too late.