13th May, 2013 –
Citizens for Bahrain’s review of a Policy Analysis by Mitchell Belfer from the Central European Journal of International & Security Studies
This 18 month study of Bahrain society directly challenges what it calls the the “politicisation of demographics” by Bahraini opposition group, Al-Wefaq Islamic Society. The study takes as its starting point assertions by journalist and opposition figure Mansour al-Jamri, who argues that Bahrain’s Shia are a demographic minority which are systematically discriminated against. The study concludes that “depictions of Bahrain as a Shia country dominated by a Sunni regime is a dangerous exaggeration meant to further fan the flames of sectarianism”.
Jamri argues that that past election results indicate that 62% of Bahrainis are Shia Muslims. The investigation challenges this assertion on several grounds:
Why election results are no indication of sect
· “In Bahrain “there are no clear indicators as to religious orientation…. [Bahrain] is the only state in the wider region which does not ask for religious identification in national censuses.”
· “Election results are no way to determine the religious beliefs of a population…. Careful inspection of the 2006 elections reveals that cooperative religious voting between the Shia and Sunni communities was not only possible but highly probable given the nature of the three main religious blocs.” It was noted that the major political blocs during these elections focused on “real political and socio- economic issues rather than being distracted by talk of sectarian politics”.
· The 2006 elections had a voter turnout of some 72%, a respectable number, but also one which leaves room to interpret since 28% of the electorate are unaccounted for. …. This problem is compounded when adding the non-religious blocs into the equation.
· While Ajam Shia may trace their roots to Persia, they also belong to Bahrain… the Ajam are very supportive of the al Khalifa family and are unlikely to vote for Shia revisionist parties.
· “Why is it so important for some scholars, the press, activists and wider publics, to highlight that Shia are a majority and Sunnis the minority in a country where both are now in the minority? In fact, al Wefaq and the Shia bloc they represent do not regard the multitude of Indians, Pakistanis, Philippinos… Al Wefaq cling to the archaic notion that the Shia constitute a majority; they do not.”
· “The demographic statistics which bounce around scholarship and the international press do not reflect reality; they are produced using whimsical research approaches and have only succeeded in polarizing Bahrain’s civil society.”
Examining the myth of anti-Shia discrimination
The study then systematically looks at Bahrain’s public and private sector. Belfer concludes that in Bahrain’s economy “Shia and Sunni are equally represented with the sole exception of Shia-run major businesses where Sunnis are systemically excluded… the theory of economic desperation and disempowerment is false”.
Top Six Government Ministries
· In the Ministry of Health Shia comprise 83.4% of 7407 employees; in the Ministry of Education 9427 employees were Shia, 5109 were Sunni; leading to a 35.1% – 64.9% imbalance in favour of Shia employees.
· In Municipal Affairs and Urban Planning Shia make-up 75%, in Works it is 72.1% and in Justice 51.7%. Only the Ministry of Finance sees a significant imbalance, with 79.1% of the workforce identified as Sunni.
· In the six Ministries studied, Shia comprise 68.7% while Sunni hold 31.3% of positions.
· In Government Organizations Shia maintain a greater presence: Shia 57.4%; Sunnis 42.6%.
· Shia representation is highest in the Electricity & Water Authority, holding 80% of positions.
· In the University of Bahrain (employing 1400 people) Sunnis comprise 53.3% and Shia 46.7.
High income sectors & private sector
· In Healthcare Shia are strongly represented in Nursing (85%), Public Health (85.3%) & Technicians (85.3%).
· Of the 23252 people examined in high-salary positions, there is a Shia representation of 62.6% and a Sunni representation of 37.4%: “Shia are not discriminated in these high-salary positions.”
· Of 12404 those employed in the largest 10 top-tier companies; Shia are 60.3% & Sunnis 39.7%.
· The Shia community is most visibly represented in: Aluminium Bahrain (74%), Bahrain Petroleum Company (71.5%), Arab Shipbuilding and Repair Yard (81%) and Gulf Aluminium Rolling Mill Company (74%).
· Shia and Sunnis are equally represented in the banking sector: Shia 53.4%; Sunnis 46.6%.
Shia-owned businesses
In the top ten businesses owned and operated by members of Bahrain’s Shia community systemic biases are evident. In none of the ten companies do Sunnis account for more than 3.0% of the workforce. In only half of the researched companies do Sunnis represent even between 2%-2.9% of the workforce. Of the 2648 employees of such businesses, an average of 98.1% of positions are held by Shia.
Immigration & naturalization
“Bahrain’s migration rate is very low… Bahrainis prefer to stay in Bahrain.”
“Most immigrants… tend to be either the politically vanquished or the economically downtrodden. The come from around the world; the Philippines, Kurdistan, Eritrea, Sudan, Turkey, Western Europe…”
Regarding naturalization of Palestinians following the 1967 Arab-Israeli conflict and during the first intifada: “Bahrain was responding to the humanitarian crisis facing the Palestinians… It would be quite unreasonable for al Wefaq to publically demand that the Palestinians be sent back to Palestine and…. Al-Wefaq drowns the specifics of the Palestinian case in its wide-scaled attack on Bahrain’s leadership.”
“The same could be said of Syrians who have streamed into the kingdom since 1981 following Hafez al Assad’s destruction of the city of Hama in a quest to end months of Muslim Brotherhood violence against the state. Most, if not all, Syrian refugees that were granted asylum in Bahrain and later became naturalised citizens, were civilians trapped in a brutal war… A similar pattern has been unfolding since mid- March 2011 when Syria’s political reform demonstrations transformed into civil war; Bahrain has assisted many hundreds of people settle into the Kingdom. That they tend to be Sunni Muslims is beside the point.”
“Whether discussing Palestinians, Syrians or others, al Wefaq (among others) can only see the black-and-white of sectarianism, for them everything smacks of attacks against them.”
In conclusion:
“The country is not a simple case of Sunnis and Shia Muslims competing for dominance of the political and economic resources of the state, Sunnis and Shia are joined by many other identities not least of Bahrainis. Despite the manipulation of demographics to attempt to delegitimize Bahrain’s immigration policy, and the government by extension, Bahrain continues to be a vibrant society.” See the full report:
http://cejiss.org/editors-desk/editor%25E2%2580%2599s-policy-analysis-demographic-warfare