Implications of redrawn constituency borders in Bahrain

Facts you need to know

• In the 22 November elections an expected 150-200 candidates will compete for 40 parliamentary seats.
• New electoral district changes mean that over 90% of Bahrain’s constituencies are now of approximately equal size.
• With one of the five Governorates abolished and hardly any of the 40 constituencies left untouched, this represents radical and far-reaching reform of the electoral system.
• Allegations of unfair constituency sizes were one of the opposition’s main grievances.
• These changes were introduced after extensive debate within the National Dialogue process and after the Crown Prince personally engaged with community representatives.

Just two months before the parliamentary elections, Bahrainis are struggling to digest the implications of completely redrawn borders of electoral districts across the country. One of the five Governorates (Central Governorate) has been abolished altogether and those constituencies have been incorporated into neighboring regions.

It has long been one of the top grievances of the opposition that population sizes in the different constituencies is highly uneven, as a result of demographic changes over the years. There have been rumors for a while that there would be a modest rebalancing between the relatively highly populated Northern Governorate constituencies vis-à-vis the Southern Governorate constituencies, which despite encompassing around three-quarters of the land area of Bahrain, have a relatively lower population density.

However, the announced changes – following a process of consultation by the Crown Prince with community figures and extensive discussion of this matter in the National Dialogue process – are far more radical and far-reaching than anyone expected.

The Northern Governorate previously included just nine electoral districts – it now has twelve districts, resulting in more consistent population sizes in each individual constituency. The Justice Minister has confirmed that 90% of constituencies now have equivalent populations sizes following the changes.

Some of the northeast of the Central Governorate has been swallowed-up by the Capital Governorate, but most of the Central Governorate has been incorporated by an expanded Southern Governorate, increasing the population size in each of the revised Southern constituencies.

Particularly in many of the Southern and Muharraq constituencies, numerous candidates have already registered, with around 150 candidates in total so far and many more likely to register before the deadline. The majority are independent candidates, as many major political blocs still haven’t confirmed how they will participate.

Within the opposition the constituency boundary changes has triggered intense debate about whether to participate in the elections with some of the smaller societies already signaling they may stand.

1)   Capital Governorate

The Capital Governorate has expanded from eight to ten constituencies and there have been significant changes in the existing constituencies.

Six of the eight original constituencies (2^nd district, 3^rd, 4^th, 5^th, 7^th & 8^th) were opposition strongholds held by Al-Wefaq until its withdrawal from Parliament in 2011.

The 1^st district along the northeast coastline and the 6^th district (to be reconstituted) have been held by loyalist independents.

Under the new constituencies, the 1^st and 4^th districts are in traditionally loyalist, largely Sunni areas. For example, the reconstituted 4^th district is centred around the main Al-Fateh Mosque and prosperous Juffair region and includes areas like Adliya, a thriving centre for culture, the arts and the hospitality industry. The redrawing of this 4^th district has left three sitting MPs fighting over the same seat alongside several other rival candidates.

In the remaining areas, including in the two constituencies (9^th & 10^th districts) taken from the defunct Central governorate, the opposition – if it decided to participate – would be expected to perform well; particularly in opposition heartlands like Sanabis and Karbabad (5^th district – also including Seef); Khamis, Adhari and Sehla (6^th district); and Nabih Saleh and Sitra (8^th district).

Mixed population areas where constituency borders have changed like the 2^nd district in central Manama, may be less predictable and therefore will be hotly contested. There are already around 20 candidates contesting the three districts covering central and east Manama (2^nd, 4^th & 5^th)

To the west of the capital, the reconstituted 3^rd and 6^th districts have taken in areas formerly part of the Northern Governorate, which helps equalize population size in each of the constituencies.

2)   Al-Muharraq Governorate

Al-Muharraq is the least-changed of the governorates. The island of Al-Muharraq has traditionally been a stronghold for Sunni Islamist parties like the Salafi Al-Asalah and Al-Minbar Al-Islami (close to the Muslim Brotherhood).

Five of the eight seats are currently held by independent candidates (2^nd district,  4^th, 5^th, 7^th & 8^th). Al-Asalah and Al-Minbar currently only hold one seat each (1^st & 3^rd districts respectively). The 8^th district had been held by Al-Asalah, but was lost to independent Samir Khadim in a 2012 by-election.

The 6^th district (Al-Dair and Samaheej) was an Al-Wefaq opposition stronghold, but was taken unopposed by Abbas Al-Madi in the 2011 by-election following Al-Wefaq’s withdrawal from Parliament.

In just the five districts of central Al-Muharraq (1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th, 7^th) there are already nearly 40 candidates fighting over these parliamentary seats.

3)   Northern Governorate

The Northern Governorate is the heartland for the opposition, with Al-Wefaq formerly dominant in seven of the nine electoral districts.

Al-Wefaq claimed with some justification that in some of these districts the population was proportionately higher than in constituencies in other parts of the country, so the significant rearrangement here will certainly be seen as a welcome step by opposition moderates.

For example, the 1^st Northern district was previously the most populous district in Bahrain. This district has effectively divided into two; its western half becoming the 4^th Northern district (Jidhafs, Abu-Quwah, Al-Qadam) and its eastern half incorporated into 6^th Capital (North & South Sehla, Tashan).

The 4^th district, now reconstituted as the 3^rd district which runs along the northern strip of the west coast and includes Sunni-majority towns of Budaiya, Hamala and Jasra; has been held by independent candidate Hassan Al-Dossari. The 6^th district – one of the reconstituted Hamad Town constituencies has been held by Sunni Al-Minbar Al-Islami MP Muhammad Ismail Al-Ammadi.

The other seven former districts were held by Al-Wefaq until 2011 and after the 2011 by-elections were won mainly by a mixture of independent Shia candidates.

Increasing the Northern constituencies from nine to twelve districts is a radical and brave step on behalf of the Bahraini authorities. Some areas that were formerly in the Northern governorate have been incorporated into the 3^rd and 6^th Capital districts

Should the opposition decide to contest the parliamentary elections, this significant increase in constituencies in its own heartland would mean a likelihood of the opposition gaining more parliamentary seats, although the numerous changes in electoral borders makes this difficult to predict exactly. Opposition newspaper Al-Wasat predicted that the opposition could win up to 10 of the 12 revised constituencies in the Northern Governorate, which isn’t unrealistic, but would depend on the nature of the competition in mixed areas like Hamad Town (8^th-11^th districts) and the diverse 7^th district.

The north coast districts (1^st, 2^nd, 4^th, 5^th; encompassing Al-Hillah, Karranah, Janusan, Barbar, Diraz, Al-Markh, Bani Jamra, Jidhafs, Al-Qadam, Abu-Quwwah, Shakhura, Muqaba, and Sar) are purely opposition strongholds.

As mentioned above, the west coast 3^rd district could be expected to be held by a loyalist candidate, due to its majority Sunni population.

The 6^th district of Ali is also a centre for the opposition. Some of this area was incorporated from the Central Governorate.

The 7^th district (Al-Qurrayah, Janabiya, Buri, Hamala and Damistan) is a mixture of opposition and loyalist, Sunni and Shia and so is unpredictable.

Hamad Town is a major population centre with a mixed working-class population and encompasses the 8^th, 9^th 10^th and 11^th electoral districts and so competition would be expected to be fierce here.

The 12^th district, including Kazrakan, Damistan, Malikiya, Sadad and Shahrakan is also a centre for the opposition, where Al-Wefaq could expect to win if they contested.

4)   Southern Governorate

Most of the defunct Central Governorate has been swallowed up by the Southern Governorate, with some sections also being absorbed into the Capital Governorate.

The Southern electoral districts have as a result increased from six to ten.

One example of the effects of the substantially larger population size in each of the Southern constituencies is that several prominent sitting MPs are now fighting over the same seats, such as MPs Jassim Al Saeedi and Khamis Al-Rumaihi forced to contest the same seat in the 8^th district,

All of the six former Southern districts were held by independent loyalist candidates, predominantly Sunnis.

With the expanded districts, the opposition could be expected to do well in the new 4^th district (Nuwaidrat & Sanad), if it chose to participate, which would represent the first time they had the opportunity to make headway in the Southern Governorate. There are also significant concentrations of opposition supporters in the Sitra area of the 8^th district.

The urban populations of Isa and Zayed Town in the 1^st and 2^nd electoral districts could be expected to be hotly competed and numerous candidates are already signed up to compete. The core Sunni loyalist areas of the south around Al-Riffa also look set to be highly competitive, with eight candidates already in the West Riffa 7^th district.

Candidates so far

Below is a list of the candidates who have declared their intention to compete in the parliamentary elections as of 1 October, based on media reporting. Formal candidate registration only occurs between 15-19 October, so this list is likely to change substantially before the elections. Many of the major political societies have still not declared full lists of candidates, and in particular it is unclear whether the societies belonging to the Al-Fateh Coalition will succeed in forming a political bloc. The change in constituency boundaries seems to have complicated this process.

It is indicated in brackets below whether candidates belong to a political society; otherwise they are assumed to be standing as independents, although this also could change.

There are 22 women in the list below (indicated with an *)

Capital

1^st Capital

(Manama northeast coast, Diplomatic Area, Houra, Qudaybiya)

Adil Al-Asumi (Incumbent)

Ibrahim Janahi

2^nd Capital

(Central Manama, Al-Burhama, Salihiya, Al-Suwayfiyah)

*Ibtisam Hijres (Incumbent)

Faysal Bin-Rajab

Ahmed Muhsin Qassim

Hashim al-Alawi

Ali Rashdan

Mohammad Al-Hawaj – probable

3^rd Capital

(Sanabis, Karbabad, Seef)

Ali Abbas Shamtout (Incumbent)

Abbas Al-Sarraj

Sayed Hashim Al-Aradi

4^th Capital

(Al-Fateh, Juffair, Al-Ghuraifa, Mina Salman, Umm Al-Hassam, Abu-Ghazzal, Adliya)

Abdulrahman Bu-Majid (Incumbent)

Abdulhakim Al-Shamari (Incumbent)

Hassan Bu-Khamas (Incumbent)

Ibrahim Al-Mana’i (Mithaq)

Adnan Al-Nua’imi

Abdulrahim Al-Kooheji

5^th Capital        

(Bilad Al Qadeem, Zinj, Salmaniya, Segaiya, Mahooz and Abu Asheera)

Jamal Mohammed Salih Abdullah (Incumbent)

Ibrahim Sharif

Kadhim Al-Saeed – probable

*Basimah Saleh

Adil Al-Safar (Al-Watan)

Kadhim Al-Awinati

Nasir Al-Qusayr

*Wafa Ajwar

6^th Capital 

(Khamis, Al-Musalla, Tashan, Abu Baham, Adhari, North Sehla, South Sehla)

*Masumah Hassan Abdalrahim

Ali Al-Atish (Rabitah)

Ihsan Al-Faraj

7^th Capital 

(Jid Ali, Jurdab)

*Zainab Abdalamir

Usamah Al-Khajah

8^th Capital 

(Nabih Saleh, Sitra, Industrial Area, Marqoban, Mahaza)

*Tahira Al-Tublani

Khalifa Sulaibikh

9^th Capital 

(Southern Sitra, East Al-Eker)

Hamid Nuh

Ibrahim Al-Asfour

Muhammad Al Al-Shaikh

10^th Capital        

(West Eker, Sanad and South Isa Town)

*Sumayah Abdulrahman Ali al-Jawder (Incumbent)

*Nourah Abdullah Ma’touq

Wajih Baqir – (Mithaq)

Tariq al-Sha’i’

*Lu’luah al-Mutlaq (Al-Watan)

Yassir al-Khayyat

Al-Muharraq

1^st Muharraq     

(Busaiteen)

Adil al-Mu’awadah (Asalah; Incumbent)

Yahya al-Majdami

Muhammad al-Mutawwa’

Ahmad Ubaidli

Ali – Bu-Fursan

Muhammad al-Qalalif

Ahmad Ashir

Ali al-Fadhalah

Rashid al-Qassab

Muhammad al-Hussaini – probable

Thani Rashdan

Dr. Sa’di Muhammad

Mariam Al Jowder (Al-Watan)

2^nd Muharraq

(Al-Muharraq central)

2^nd incumbent Abdulhamid al-Mir

Ali Ahmad (Minbar; Incumbent)

Abdulrahman Bin-Ziman ( Mithaq)

Muhammad al-Faraj

Wahid al-Dosary

Ibrahim al-Jum’ah

Abdulmun’im al-‘Id

Khalid al-Hashim

Mustafa al-Dawishan- probable

Abdullah al-Mana’i – probable

3^rd Muharraq

(Al-Muharraq central, Qalali)

Jamal Ali Bu-Hassan

Adil Bu-Anq

Abdallah Muhammad Sa’d

4^th Muharraq

(Al-Muharraq central)

Isa al-Kooheji (Incumbent)

Adnan Bu-Muti’ (Minbar)

Rima Hassan Halal

Abdullah al-Aynati (National Unity Gathering) 

5^th Muharraq

(Northeast Muharraq; Amwaj Islands)

Mahmoud al-Mahmoud (Incumbent)

Khalid Bu-‘Anq

*Dunya al-Fa’iz – probable

Sami al-Sha’ir (National Unity Gathering) 

Mohammed al-Jawder

Muhammad al-Dakhil

6^th Muharraq

(Dair & Samaheej)

*Amani Abdullah al-Aradi – probable

Hussain al-Samaheeji

7^th Muharraq

(Arad)

Nasir al-Fadhalah (Minbar)

Ali Ya’qoub al-Muqallah

Muhammad al-Hamad (National Unity Gathering)

Muhammad Fakhro

Badr al-Hammadi (Al-Watan)

Khalid al-Kawr

8^th Muharraq

(Southern Muharraq; Hidd)

Samir al-Khadim (Incumbent)

Abdullah Bu-Ghumar (Al-Saff)

Abdulnasir Abdullah – probable

Northern

1^st Northern

(Al-Hilla, Al-Meqsha, Karranah, Janusan, Barbar, Diraz)

Muhammad Abdulwahhab

Muhammad al-Mawali

2^nd Northern

(Al-Markh, Bani Jamra, Diraz)

Ali Ahmad Ali al-Dirazi (incumbent)

Muhammad Khalil

Jalal Kadhim

3^rd Northern

(Northern strip of west coast; Budayya, Al-Haniniyah, Jasra, Hamala, Um al-Sabiyan, Um al-Na’san, Jiddah)

Hassan al-Dosary (Incumbent)

Adil al-Dosary (National Unity Gathering) 

4^th Northern

(Jidhafs, Jablah Habshi, North Sehla, Al-Qadam, Abu-Quwwah)

*Huda Mansour Radhi

Salih al-Amm

5^th Northern

(Al-Qadam, Al-Hajar, Abu Saiba, Al-Shakhurah, Al-Muqaba, Diraz, Sar, Al-Markh)

Ahmad al-Najjar

Faysal Misbah

Isa al-Asfour

6^th Northern

(Aali)

Ahmad Abdulrahman Mahmoud al-Sa’ati (Incumbent Al-Watan)

* Ru’a al-Haiki

7^th Northern

(Al-Qurayah, Janabiyah, Buri, Hamalah, Dumistan)

Abdaljalil al-Ali

Ali Makki

Ahmad Yusuf

8^th Northern

(Hamad Town)

Adil al-Dhawadi

Isa al-Turki– probable

9^th Northern

(Hamad Town)

Abdalhamid al-Najjar

Ahmad Arad (National Unity Gathering)

10^th Northern

(Hamad Town)

Khalid al-Maloud – (Asalah; incumbent)

Muhammad Ismail al-Ammadi (Minbar; Incumbent)

*Sima al-Lanjawi

Nuruddin al-Bastaki

11^th Northern

(Dar Kulayb, Hamad Town)

Muhammad Salim Jassim Bu-Qays (Incumbent)

Thamir Ali

Abdulwahid al-Fardan

Jamal Da’oud

12^th Northern

(Dumistan, Al-Luzi, Karzakan, Al-Malikiyah, Sadad, Shahrakan, Al-Safariyah)

Khalid Abdali Muhammad Abd-Aal (Incumbent)

Ali Faradin

Southern

1^st Southern

(Isa Town)

Adnan al-Maliki – (Asalah; Incumbent)

Ja’afar Habib

*Jayhan Muhammad Hadi

Salman al-Shaykh

Khalid al-Qattan (Minbar)

Khalid al-Sha’ir

2^nd Southern

(Isa Town, Zayid Town)

Isa al-Qadhi (Incumbent)

*Faydh al-Sharqawi

Abdulaziz Matar

Saleh Muhammad Khalifah al-Shawoush

Muhammad al-Ahmed

Muhammad al-Zayyani

Muhammad al-Dhawadi

Khalid Abdulrahman

3^rd Southern

(North Riffa, Al-Hajiat)

Abdalhalim Murad (Asalah; Incumbent)

Hasan al-Ali

4^th Southern

(Al-Nuwaidrat, Sanad, Al-Hajiat)

Ali al-Zaid (Incumbent)

Abdullah al-Khalidi

Muhammad Ma’rifi

5^th Southern

(West Riffa, Al-Haniniyah, Al-Bukuwarah)

Khalifa al-Ghanim

*Fawziah Zainal

Hashim al-Madani

6^th Southern

(Northern Riffa, Al-Bukuwarah)

Khalifa al-Dharrani (Incumbent)

Abdullah Abdulrahman Baqir

*Jamila al-Kooheji (National Unity Gathering)

*Nawal Ahmad Saqr al-Dosary

*Layla Ali al-Lamal

7^th Southern

(Al-Nuwaidrat, West Riffa, Al-Rawdhah)

Abdullah Huwail (Incumbent)

Ahmed al-Mula (Incumbent)

Anwar al-Muhammad

Ahmed al-Dosary

Jasim al-Areik

Sharikh al-Dosary

*Layla al-Mula

Abdulhafidh al-Mubidhin

8^th Southern

(Southern Sitra, Al-Ma’amir, East Al-Riffa, Awali, Al-Mazrowiyah, Askar, Jaw, Al-Dawr)

Jassim al-Saeedi – (Incumbent)

Khamis al-Rumaihi – (Incumbent)

Dhiyab al-Nu’aimi

Yousuf al-Ka’bi

Muhammad al-Awdhani

Muhammad al-Sisi

Naji al-Ka’bi – probable

Muhammad al-Azami

9^th Southern

(Southwest coast; Al-Sakhir)

Abdullah al-Dosary(incumbent)

Muhsin al-Bakri

Mut’ib al-Dhawadi

10^th Southern

(Southern Bahrain, Al-Dawr & Hawar islands)

*Latifa Al- Gaoud (incumbent)