Overview
Southern MPs Isa Qaadi (2nd), Fawzia Zainal (head of Parliament, 5th) and Abdulrazzaq Hattab (6th) all stood down in 2022; offering openings for new candidates and former MPs.
However, five incumbent MPs made it into the 2022 second round: Ahmed al-Amer (1st), Ahmed al-Ansari (3rd), Ali Zayed (4th), Saud al-Dossary (9th) and Mohammed al-Sisi (moving from 8th to 10th). Three former MPs also made it into the second round: Mohammed al-Maarifi (4th), Khalifa al-Ghanim (5th), Anas Buhindi (6th).
Several Southern constituencies are traditional strongholds for the Salafist Asalah society, and this society in 2022 fielded heavyweight candidates, Adnan al-Maliki, Ahmed al-Ansari and Ali Zayid in the 1st, 3rd and 4th constituencies. Salafist former MP Anas Buhindi is standing in 6th Southern.
3rd Southern is the only 2022 constituency where multiple political societies went head-to-head. Along with incumbent Ahmed al-Ansari, from Asalah, Mohammed al-Rifai represents the National Unity Gathering, and Abdullah Bu-Ghammar is from Al-Saff.
Although Al-Maliki was knocked out in the first round, Al-Ansari, Al-Rifai, Zayid and Buhindi are all going strong into the second round, indicating a likely continued strong Islamist presence in the 2022 Parliament.
The Isa Town and Zayid Town constituencies, 1st and 2nd Southern, are among the more cosmopolitan constituencies where progressive, diverse and female candidates have often competed against each other, not always successfully.
The contests in the rural deep-south constituencies – particularly 8th, 9th and 10th – have tended to be somewhat less competitive in the past; for example, this time around 8th Southern only has three candidates. Although 10th Southern, with only around 2,500 voters, is set for a rather different 2022 contest with a crowded field of ten contestants.
First round results
1st: Second round runoff between Ahmed al-Amer (incumbent MP) and Abdullah al-Rumaihi.
2nd: Second round runoff between Maryam al-Dhaen and Ibrahim Buhazza.
3rd: Second round runoff between Ahmed al-Ansari (incumbent MP) and Mohammed al-Rifai.
4th: Second round runoff between Mohammed al-Maarifi (former MP) and Ali Zayed (incumbent MP).
5th: Second round runoff between Mohammed Musa and Khalifa al-Ghanim (former MP).
6th: Second round runoff between Najib al-Kuwari and Anas Buhindi (former MP).
7th: Ali al-Nuaimi (incumbent MP), first round victory.
8th: Second round runoff between Badr al-Tamimi and Abdulrahman Jassim al-Ghanim.
9th: Second round runoff between Ali Saqr al-Dossary and Badr Saud al-Dosary (incumbent MP).
10th: Second round runoff between Mohammed al-Sisi al-Buainain (incumbent MP, 8th) and Lulwa Al-Rumaihi.
1st Southern
Second round runoff between Ahmed al-Amer (incumbent MP) and Abdullah al-Rumaihi.
Former MP Adnan al-Maliki from Al-Asalah lost his seat in 2014, but had been seen as likely to make a comeback in 2018. Instead, Ahmed al-Amer clinched the 2018 race from Nasreen Maarouf in round two.
Al-Maliki returned again in 2022 seeking to regain the seat from Ahmed al-Amer, along with ten other candidates, in one of habitually the most competitive constituencies.
In the event, incumbent MP Ahmed al-Amer came top with 27% of the vote (1260 votes), followed by Abdullah al-Rumaihi (21%, 986 votes). Adnan al-Maliki was beaten into third place with 981 votes.
Areas covered: Isa Town
Number of 2022 first round candidates: 10
Voter demographic
Moderate independent candidates have tended to perform well in this central area of Bahrain. However, the first round of the 2014 contest was distinguished by being a three-way battle between three prominent Sunni/loyalist political societies: Al-Asalah, Al-Minbar and the National Unity Gathering. The convincing win in 2014 for young, progressive candidate Khalid al-Shaer left the societies wishing they had made more effort to coordinate their campaigns and avoid splitting the vote. The 2018 elections was once again a mixture of Islamist figures and youthful and centrist candidates.
2nd Southern
Second round runoff between Maryam al-Dhaen and Ibrahim Buhazza.
Former MP Isa al-Qadhi in 2014 lost to Mohammed al-Ahmed. The situation reversed itself in 2018, with Qadhi winning nearly twice as many first and second round votes.
In 2018 Mohammed al-Ahmed relocated to 9th Northern to contest that seat, and MP Isa al-Qadhi is not standing, leaving a relatively open contest among six new candidates.
Maryam al-Dhaen proved to be one of the strongest female candidates nationwide in the 2022 contest, winning 38% (1751 votes) of the vote, with Ibrahim Buhazza coming in second (27%, 1262 votes).
Areas covered: Isa Town, Zayed Town
Number of 2022 first round candidates: 6
Voter demographic
The working-class conurbations of Isa Town and Zayed Town were part of the now non-existent Central Governorate. These areas have historically been the most favourable for liberal, technocratic, female and broadly-speaking progressive candidates. In these somewhat more-diverse areas political societies – loyalist or opposition – have often struggled to make headway. Consequently, in 2018 for the second year running, all candidates stood as independents.
3rd Southern
Second round runoff between Ahmed al-Ansari (incumbent MP) and Mohammed al-Rifai.
After longstanding Asalah MP Abdulhalim Murad stepped down prior to the 2018 elections, his replacement from the same Salafist society won the seat outright; Ahmed al-Ansari, head of the Southern Governorate Municipal Council.
In 2022 this is the only constituency where multiple Islamist political societies are standing, as one of the few constituencies where prominent figures from these societies have performed strongly. Along with incumbent Ahmed al-Ansari, from the Salafist Asalah society, Mohammed al-Rifai is representing the National Unity Gathering, and Abdullah Bu-Ghammar is from Al-Saff. Bu-Ghammar has previously contested unsuccessfully in 8th Muharraq.
Ahmed al-Ansari came in well ahead in the 2022 first round, with 34% of the vote (2406 votes), followed by Mohammed al-Rifai (23%, 1623 votes). Female candidate Muna al-Doy won 851 votes, while Al-Saff’s Bu-Ghammar gained just 103 votes.
Areas covered: North Riffa, Hajiyat
Number of 2022 first round candidates: 9
Voter demographic
This constituency is in the central loyalist heartland of Al-Riffa. An older generation of voters are expected to support establishment figures who espouse unwavering support for the Monarchy and Islamic values. However, the 84% turnout in 2014 indicated the success of the candidates in engaging all the local demographics, including encouraging younger voters to come out in large numbers.
4th Southern
Second round runoff between Mohammed al-Maarifi (former MP) and Ali Zayed (incumbent MP).
In 2018, former MP Ali Zayid, representing Salafist society Al-Asalah, came in comfortably ahead of incumbent MP Mohammed al-Maarifi in both round one and round two.
Zayid and Al-Maarifi went head-to-head again in 2022, along with six other relatively unknown candidates. The two frontrunners sailed into the second round, with Maarifi on 31% (2972 votes) and Zayid on 25% (2450).
Areas covered: Nuwaidrat, Sanad, Hajiat
Number of 2022 first round candidates: 8
Voter demographic
This is a mixed – opposition/loyalist Sunni/Shia – constituency and a product of the boundary changes and the abolition of the Central Governorate. Nuwaidrat and Sanad are traditionally Shia, but many of the other areas are Sunni or mixed. In recent years, conservative Sunni candidates have tended to prevail.
5th Southern
Second round runoff between Mohammed Musa and Khalifa al-Ghanim (former MP).
Popular local women’s activist Fawzia Zainal in 2018 finally succeeded in winning convincingly, in her third attempt to gain a parliamentary seat. Fawzia Zainal became the first woman parliament speaker in 2018, but decided not to run for the 2022 elections.
MP from the 2014 Parliament, Khalifa al-Ghanim, entered the 2022 race. Al-Ghanim came in second place to Mohammed Musa who garnered a dominant 45% of the vote (3450 votes), to Ghanim’s 23% (1751).
Areas covered: West Riffa, Haniniyah, Bukuwarah
Number of 2022 first round candidates: 5
Voter demographic
This is a fiercely loyalist district in the ruling family’s heartland of Riffa. However, even here, voter participation cannot be taken for granted and candidates have had to reach out to younger voters, the professional classes and more disenfranchised sections of the electorate.
Boundary changes rewrote the rulebook in these areas, forcing candidates to work harder to win over a broader demographic of supporters. The remarkable 2014 first round turnout of over 85% indicated how successful candidates were in mobilizing support and encouraging political engagement.
6th Southern
Second round runoff between Najib al-Kuwari and Anas Buhindi (former MP).
In 2018, Salafist candidate Abdulrazzaq Hattab narrowly failed to win outright in the first round, coming more than 1,000 votes ahead of Mithaq’s Mohammed Darwish. Voting followed similar patterns in round two.
Hattab is not standing in 2022, although Islamist former MP, Anas Buhindi joined the contest, along with female former candidates, Nawal al-Dossary and Nadia al-Amr.
Najib al-Kuwari and Anas Buhindi made it through into the 2022 second round, with 44% and 17 % respectively (2933 and 1141 votes). Nawal al-Dossary and Nadia al-Amr made it to third and fourth place.
Areas covered: Northern Riffa, Bukuwarah
Number of 2022 first round candidates: 7
Voter demographic
One of the big stories of the 2014 elections was the announcement from Khalifa al-Dhahrani, the head of the previous Parliament, that he wouldn’t be standing. Al-Dhahrani’s non-appearance opened up the field for a broad group of untested candidates, with Salafist cleric Anas Buhindi eventually winning the seat in 2014. This is a safe loyalist seat in an area which has tended to prefer conservative, independent candidates.
7th Southern
Ali al-Noaimi (incumbent MP), first round victory.
Three women candidates in 7th Southern succeeded in splitting the 2018 vote and performing disappointingly, with MP Rua al-Haiki only gaining 52 votes. Two new figures, Ali al-Noaimi and Ahmed al-Tamimi, made it through to round two, with Noaimi coming out on top.
Al-Noaimi and Al-Tamimi were among the four candidates in the 2022 contest. Ali al-Noaimi managed a convincing first round win, with 53% of the vote (3459 votes). Ahmed al-Tamimi got 36%.
Areas covered: Nuwaidrat, West Riffa, Rawdhah
Number of 2022 candidates: 4
Voter demographic
The 7th Southern district is one of the more diverse areas in southern Bahrain. It is relatively a new constituency, given the extent of the 2014 border changes, which encompass Sunni Riffa and Shia Nuwaidrat. A significant proportion of people from this area work for the army. This area is known for its tribal ties and so three of the original four 2014 candidates hailed from the Sunni Dossary and Al Marra tribal families.
8th Southern
Second round runoff between Badr al-Tamimi and Abdulrahman Jassim al-Ghanim.
Mohammed al-Sisi came second place in 2014, but still outperformed prominent Islamist former MP Jassim al-Saeedi in that contest. In 2018 al-Sisi came out a long way ahead of all other contestants.
Al-Sisi in 2022 moved to the 10th Southern constituency, leaving just three relatively unknown candidates – making this one of the more open contests.
Badr al-Tamimi came top in the 2022 first round, with 48% of the vote (2595 votes). Abdulrahman Jassim al-Ghanim gained 36%. Maryam Yousef Ali Abbas got 15% of the vote.
Areas covered: Southern Sitra, Ma’amir, East Riffa, Awali, Mazrowiyah, Askar, Jaw, Dawr
Number of 2022 first round candidates: 3
Voter demographic
Where as many of the Southern constituencies are relatively small and clustered around the Sunni loyalist heartland of Riffa; the 8th, 9th and 10th Southern constituencies in Bahrain’s far south have very different electoral dynamics. These three constituencies between them occupy around 2/3 of Bahrain’s total land mass, being very large and very sparsely occupied. These constituencies thus tend to be very rural, tribal and traditional. Often, relatively little is heard about these contests in the local media and tend to be more about personalities than issues.
Regarding 8th Southern, the constituency border changes produced this rather oddly located constituency, ranging from the opposition home turf of Sitra to the loyalist hearth of Riffa. The 8th Southern district lies to the south of Bahrain along the eastern coast, in an area with a relatively low population density. Despite its relatively large size, this is the constituency with the fourth lowest number of voters. The 2014 expansion of this district brought in a few Shia-majority areas, particularly to the northeast in Sitra.
9th Southern
Second round runoff between Ali Saqr al-Dossary and Badr al-Dossary (incumbent MP).
Nawar al-Mutawa and municipal councillor Badr al-Dossary were just a few votes apart after the 2018 first round. However, by the second round Dossary had built up increased momentum against his rival.
Badr al-Dossary in 2022 competed against four other new candidates.
Ali Saqr al-Dossary and incumbent Badr al-Dossary made it through to the second round, with 44% and 32% of the vote share respectively (1605 and 1161 votes).
Areas covered: Southwest coast; Sakhir
Number of 2022 first round candidates: 5
Voter demographic
The 9th Southern district is one of the three sparsely populated but geographically large southern constituencies that are dominated by conservative and loyalist candidates. Independent candidates have usually performed strongly in these southern regions. Tribal and familial ties are everything in these traditionally-minded locations, hence the prevalence of certain family names among the candidates: In 2014, 2018 and 2022 this contest was dominated from members of the Dossary tribe. Figures who have come from a municipal council role with a record of local public service, often tend to perform well.
10th Southern
Second round runoff between Mohammed al-Sisi al-Buainain and Lulwa Al-Rumaihi.
Once again in 2018, 10th Southern proved to be one of the least competitive contests in Bahrain; with two candidates only. Isa al-Dossary won the first round with 539 votes. However, the 2022 contest had ten candidates, promising a somewhat different electoral dynamic.
In 2022 incumbent MP Mohammed al-Sisi moved from his 8th Southern constituency to this constituency and cruised through into the second round with 34% of the vote (1313 votes). Lulwa al-Rumaihi came second with 663 votes.
Areas covered: Southern Bahrain, Dawr & Hawar islands
Number of 2022 first round candidates: 10
Voter demographic
The 10th Southern district encompasses a large area of Bahrain’s southern landmass, but is sparse on population. With 2,368 registered voters, this is the constituency with by far the smallest number of voters in Bahrain (next smallest 9th Southern with 5,090 voters). However, prior to the electoral reforms this region only had around 1,175 registered voters.
The low 2014 turnout compared to other Southern constituencies where participation of over 80% has been the norm, can perhaps be put down to the scattered nature of local populations, and the lack of serious competition for former MP Ahmed al-Mulla. An additional factor is that with Latifa al-Gaoud winning uncontested in both 2006 and 2010, there had been no strong tradition of democratic participation in this rural and tribal area.