Section one: Predictions for the Bahrain 2014 parliamentary elections
How many seats will be decided in the first round?
How many incumbent MPs will hold on to their seats?
How many women candidates will make it to Parliament?
How many seats will be won by political societies?
Section two: Bahrain’s 40 constituencies at a glance
Section three: Battle for Bahrain’s rural southern regions
Click on the following links for Citizens for Bahrain’s definitive guide to all 40 constituencies and all 266 candidates: Capital Governorate; Muharraq Governorate; Northern Governorate; Southern Governorate
Predictions for the Bahrain 2014 parliamentary elections
Predicting elections results is a risky game. However, some broad outcomes can be predicted with a degree of certainty concerning the 22 November vote:
Looking at the below statistics, we discover that only around half of Bahrain’s 40 constituencies are being contested by incumbent MPs, meaning that it is likely that around two-thirds of the new Parliament will be made up of new faces.
As a result of the strategy that the leading political societies have adopted of only targeting relatively safe seats, these societies are only competing in 16 districts. Between them they may only get as many as 10-11 seats; meaning a Parliament where three-quarters of its members are independents.
Bahrain’s electoral system dictates that the contest goes to a second round wherever a candidate fails to gain more than 50% of the vote. Due to the unusually competitive nature of the contest, based on our estimates below, around three-quarters of the 40 seats will only be decided in the second round of the vote.
Regarding the prospects for women candidates, despite many of the female nominees being among the highest-calibre figures in the contest, luck seems to be against many of these candidates who are clustered in some of the most fiercely-contested districts.
Therefore, we foresee that only around four to five female candidates are likely to be successful. However, this is one instance where we hope to be wrong and that we will see many more women coming through into Parliament.
We stress again that the below calculations are subject to the limits of our knowledge and we fully expect to get our predictions wrong in some instances. Please do not take our predictions to reflect which candidates we like best. We would be happy to hear from you with your predictions, hopes and expectations for the vote.
How many seats will be decided in the first round?
The contest goes to a second round if the leading contestant fails to gain more than 50% of the vote.
Two seats will definitely have been decided by the first round: 8th Capital has already been won by default by Majid al-Asfour after his rivals withdrew; and in 10th Southern there are only two contenders, the favourite being incumbent Ahmed al-Mula.
We predict that there are ten other constituencies that have a less than 60% chance of going to a second round (1st Capital; 6th & 8th Muharraq; 1st, 2nd & 11th Northern; 3rd, 5th, 7th & 8th Southern). We estimate that around five of these will be decided in the first round.
We predict that there are around 19 constituencies that have a 60-80% chance of going to a second round (2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th,7th & 9th Capital; 4th & 5th Muharraq; 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 12th Northern and 4th, 6th & 9th Southern). It is statistically likely that around three of these will get decided in the first round.
There are nine constituencies that have a 80-95% chance of going to a second round (4th & 10th Capital; 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 7th Muharraq; 10th Northern and 1st & 2nd Southern). We estimate that none of these will be decided the first time round.
The above percentages are based on the following factors:
It is easier for a candidate to gain 50% of the vote against a smaller number of contestants, so the constituencies with only 3-5 candidates tend to get a lower percentage.
In many constituencies there is a single strong incumbent candidate who enjoys widespread popularity and few credible rivals. Eg; Adel al-Assoumi (1st Capital); Mohammed Buqais (11 Northern); Abdulhalim Murad (3rd Southern); Abdullah Huwail (7th Southern) and Jassim Saeedi (8th Southern).
In constituencies where the boycott is likely to be high, it is difficult to predict results with any certainty, hence many of these come in the 60-80% bracket.
This indicates that around nine candidates could be decided by the end of the first round, with an error margin of +/- 3; i.e.; the number decided by the first round is highly likely to be between 6-12 seats.
This means that around three quarters of the 40 parliamentary seats will only be decided in the second round.
How many incumbent MPs will hold on to their seats?
Only 22 out of 40 seats have incumbent MPs fighting to retain their position. In three districts (4th Capital; 10th Northern; 1st Southern) two incumbents are competing against each other as a result of boundary changes.
Candidates win an 80-95% chance of winning:
Adel al-Assoumi (1st Capital); Mohammed Buqais (11 Northern); Abdulhalim Murad (3rd Southern); Abdullah Huwail (7th Southern); Jassim Saeedi (8th Southern); Ahmed al-Mulla (10th Southern)
We expect all six of these candidates will win.
Candidates with a 60-80% chance of winning
Khalid Maloud or Mohammed al-Ammadi (10 Northern); Hassan Bukhamas or Abdulrahman Bumajid (4th Capital); Adnan al-Maliki or Salman al-Shaikh (1st Southern); Ali al-Dirazi (1st Northern); Samir Khadim (8th Muharraq); Mahmoud al-Mahmoud (5th Muharraq); Isa al-Kooheji (4th Muharraq).
From these 10 incumbent candidates in 7 districts, we can expect 5-6 to win.
Candidates with a 30-60% chance of winning
Ali Shamtout (3rd Capital); Khalid Abdulaal (12th Northern); Abbas al-Madhi (6th Muharraq); Ali al-Atish (6th Capital); Jawad Buhussain (9th Capital); Isa al-Qadhi (2nd Southern); Ibtisam Hijres (2nd Capital); Sumayah al-Jowder (10th Capital); Hassan al-Dossary (3rd Northern).
From these nine incumbent candidates we can expect 4 to win.
The factors taken into account here are the reputed popularity of the incumbent and how hard they have been campaigning; the strength and credibility of the incumbent’s rivals; the degree of uncertainty resulting from the boycott and expected turnout levels; tactical factors, such as whether the public may unite behind an opponent in the second round.
Therefore, it is reasonable to expect around 15 MPs in the new Parliament to be incumbents, with a margin of error of +/- 3, meaning that it is conceivable that there could be 12-18 successful incumbent MPs.
The remarkable implication of this is that around two thirds of the new Parliament will almost certainly be made up of new faces. This is strongly in line with the aspirations for change and “new blood” that many Bahrainis have expressed during this campaign.
How many women candidates will make it to Parliament?
After a couple of women withdrawing from the race, there are now only 22 female candidates, with seven of these standing in three constituencies, meaning that the maximum number of winners would be 18. However, several candidates are distant outsiders in their respective races, and several of the strongest female candidates are in some of the most competitive constituencies.
Female candidates with a 30-60% chance of winning:
Fawzia Zainal (5th Southern); Jehan Mohammed (NUG 1st Southern); Faydh al-Sharqawi (2nd Southern) Huda Radhi (4th Northern); Sima al-Lengawi (NUG 10th Northern); Rua al-Haiki (6th Northern); Sumayah al-Jowder, Lulwah Mutlaq or Noura Matouq (10th Capital); Ibtisam Hijres (2nd Capital); Zainab Abdulamir (7th Capital)
Of these eleven candidates in 9 constituencies we can expect four to win.
Candidates with a 10-30% chance of winning:
Layla Rajab or Nawal al-Dossary (6th Southern); Jamila al-Sammak (12 Northern); Masoumah Abdulrahim (6th Capital) Wafa Ajoor or Basimah Saleh (5th Capital)
One of these candidates may win a seat.
Candidates with a less than 10% chance of winning:
Noura Bushehri (8th Southern); Maryam al-Mahrous (8th Northern); Hanan Abdulaziz (5th Northern); Fatimah al-Asfour (1st Northern); Rima Halal (4th Muharraq)
We would expect none of these candidates to win a seat.
So we can expect around five winning female candidates with a margin of error of +/- 3, meaning that there is a likelihood that between two and eight female candidates may win seats.
We cannot stress enough, that many of the women in this contest are excellent candidates who have been waging strong campaigns, but several of them are deeply unlucky to be found in highly competitive constituencies, which is why our expectations are on the pessimistic side.
How many seats will be won by political societies?
There are two major Sunni/loyalist groupings fighting the elections, the Salafist Al-Asalah (contesting 6 seats) and the Al-Fateh Coalition. However, Al-Fateh contains four societies which are contesting the elections – Al-Minbar (contesting 5 seats), the National Unity Gathering (7 seats), Al-Mithaq (3 seats) and Al-Wasat (one seat).
However, Al-Fateh failed to agree on a unified list for all these seats, so in two constituencies (10th Northern & 1st Southern) the NUG, Asalah and Minbar are all going head to head. In two other constituencies (3rd & 7th Muharraq) Asalah and Al-Fateh candidates are also going head to head.
So from the 21 candidates of these Sunni societies, the most seats they can possibly win is 16.
Other societies are represented in these elections, but either they are not campaigning as a coherent entity or this amounts to individual figures representing a society such as Layla Rajab (Free Nationalist Society, 6th Southern) Abdullah Bughamar (Al-Saff, 8th Muharraq) and Ali al-Atish (Al-Rabitah). The liberal Al-Watan society is represented by Lulwah Mutlaq (10th Capital and Badr al-Hamadi (7th Muharraq).
None of these entities are likely to perform with sufficient strength to have any claim to represent a political bloc in the coming Parliament, although it remains to be seen whether they or other successful independent MPs later ally themselves with the existing political groupings, as has happened in the past.
See this link for further analysis of the performance and strategies of political societies during this elections campaign.
Constituencies where societies have a 75-95% chance of winning
Khalid al-Maloud–MP Asalah; Mohammed al-Ammadi–MP Minbar; Sima al-Lengawi–NUG (10th Northern)
Ahmed Al Binali-Al-Wasat Abdulnasir al-Mahmeed–Asalah (3rd Muharraq)
Adnan al-Maliki–MP Asalah; Khalid al-Qattan–Minbar; Jehan Mohammed–NUG (1st Southern)
Abdulhalim Murad – MP Asalah (3rd Southern)
Ali Yaqoub al-Muqla–Asalah; Nasir al-Fadhalah–Minbar (7th Muharraq)
We would expect societies to win seats in all five of these constituencies
Constituencies where societies have a 50-75% chance of winning:
Abdulrazzaq al-Hattab – Asalah (5th Southern)
Salim Rajab–NUG (2nd Muharraq)
Adel al-Dhawadi–Minbar (8th Northern)
Saadi Mohammed–Minbar (1st Muharraq)
Wajih Baqer-Mithaq (10th Capital)
Ahmed Arad–NUG (9th Northern)
Mohammed al-Buainain – Mithaq (6th Southern)
We would expect societies to win in 4-5 of these seven constituencies.
Constituencies where societies have a 20-50% chance of winning
Mohammed al-Quwwati – NUG (9th Southern)
Abdullah al-Aynati-NUG (4th Muharraq)
Sami al-Shaer–NUG (5th Muharraq)
Ibrahim al-Mannai–Mithaq (4th Capital)
We would expect 1-2 societies to win in these 4 constituencies.
So we predict that 11 of the 40 parliamentary seats will be taken by the Asalah/Al-Fateh political societies with a +/- 3 margin of error, meaning that it would be reasonable to expect between 8 and 14 seats to go to political societies.
This would mean that just under three quarters of MPs in the new Parliament can be expected to be independent figures.
Bahrain’s 40 constituencies at a glance
1st Capital
Areas covered: Manama northeast coast, Diplomatic Area, Houra, Qudaybiya
Number of candidates: 5
Front-runners: Adel al-Asoumi (MP)
Worth watching: Khalid Sulaybikh, Ibrahim Janahi
Outsiders: Ahmed al-Awadhi, Ahmed al-Abbasi
Likelihood of going to second round: 45%
2nd Capital
Areas covered: Central Manama, Burhama, Salehiya, Suwayfiyah
Number of candidates: 7
Front-runners: Ibtisam Hijres (MP)
Worth watching: Ahmed Qaratah, Faysal Bin-Rajab
Outsiders: Hashim al-Alawi, Faisal al-Aradi, Ala’uddin Bu-Ali, Ahmed Ghalib
Likelihood of going to second round: 60%
3rd Capital
Areas covered: Sanabis, Karbabad, Seef
Number of candidates: 7
Front-runners: Ali Shamtout (MP), Abbas Siraj
Worth watching: Mohammed al-Mawali, Ammar al-Mahari, Adel Abdulhamid
Outsiders: Abbas Kayid, Hashim al-Aradi
Likelihood of going to second round: 60%
4th Capital
Areas covered: Fateh, Juffair, Ghuraifa, Mina Salman, Umm Hassam, Abu-Ghazzal, Adliya
Number of candidates: 7
Front-runners: Hassan Bukhamas (MP), Abdulrahman Bumajid (MP) Ammar al-Banai
Worth watching: Ibrahim al-Mannai (Mithaq), Adnan al-Nuaimi,
Outsiders: Fadhil al-Badu, Faisal al-Aynati
Likelihood of going to second round: 95%
5th Capital
Areas covered: Bilad al-Qadeem, Zinj, Salmaniya, Segaiya, Mahooz and Abu Asheera
Number of candidates: 9
Front-runners: Adel Al Safr
Worth watching: Wafa Ajoor, Hussain Bukhamas, Nasir al-Qusayr, Kadhim al-Uwaynati
Outsiders: Rashad Umar, Mamoud al-Hamar, Basimah Saleh, Ibrahim al-Awadhi
Likelihood of going to second round: 70%
6th Capital
Areas covered: Khamis, Musalla, Tashan, Abu Baham, Adhari, North Sehla, South Sehla
Number of candidates: 5
Front-runners: Ali al-Atish (MP, Rabitah), Abdullah al-Kooheji
Worth watching: Ihsan al-Faraj, Masoumah Abdulrahim
Outsiders: Abdulnabi Mahdi
Likelihood of going to second round: 65%
7th Capital
Areas covered: Jid Ali, Jurdab
Number of candidates: 5
Front-runner: Abdullah al-Dirazi, Zainab Abdulamir
Worth watching: Ridha Shukrallah, Osamah al-Khajah, Khalid al-Quwwati
Likelihood of going to second round: 65%
8th Capital
Areas covered: Nabih Saleh, Sitra, Industrial Area, Marqoban, Mahaza
Winning candidate: Majid al-Asfour
9th Capital
Areas covered: Southern Sitra, East Eker
Number of candidates: 4
Worth watching: Mohammed al-Shaikh, Ibrahim al-Asfour, Jawad Buhussain
Likelihood of going to second round: 60%
10th Capital
Areas covered: West Eker, Sanad and South Isa Town
Number of candidates: 15
Front-runners: Sumayah al-Jowder (MP), Lulwah Mutlaq (Watan), Wajih Baqer (Mithaq)
Worth watching: Tariq al-Tamimi, Mohammed al-Markh, Ali Ishaqi, Noura Matouq, Yassir al-Khayyat, Nabil al-Balooshi
Outsiders: Yassir Bukhuwwah, Atiyatallah Al Sinan, Adel Abduljalil, Abdulhamid al-Baqishi, Salman al-Saffar, Khalifa Sulaibikh
Likelihood of going to second round: 95%
1st Muharraq
Areas covered: Busaiteen
Number of candidates: 9
Front-runners: Saadi Mohammed (Minbar), Ali Bufursan, Mohammed al-Hussaini
Worth watching: Ahmed al-Obaidli, Yahya al-Majdami
Outsiders: Ahmed Aqqab, Thani Rashidan, Ahmed Ashir, Mohammed al-Qalalif
Likelihood of going to second round: 95%
2nd Muharraq
Areas covered: Muharraq central
Number of candidates: 9
Front-runners: Salim Rajab (NUG), Wahid al-Dossary
Worth watching: Abdulrahman Bin-Zaiman, Khalid al-Hashim, Abdulmunim al-Eid
Outsiders: Ibrahim al-Hamadi, Ahmed al-Jowder, Khalid Bu-Jiri, Mohammed al-Buainain
Likelihood of going to second round: 90%
3rd Muharraq
Areas covered: Muharraq central, Qalali
Number of candidates: 10
Front-runners: Ahmed Al Binali (Wasat) Abdulnasir al-Mahmeed (Asalah), Mohammed al-Mutawwa
Worth watching: Jamal Buhassan, Mohammed Murad, Adel Bu-Anq
Outsiders: Mohammed Ahmedi, Yusuf al-Awadhi, Abdallah Saad, Abdulrahman Fakhro
Likelihood of going to second round: 95%
4th Muharraq
Areas covered: Muharraq central
Number of candidates: 7
Front-runners: Isa al-Kooheji (MP), Abdullah al-Aynati (NUG)
Worth watching: Hamad al-Mearaj, Rima Halal, Majid al-Atawi
Outsiders: Mohammed al-Murbati, Mohammed Khayami,
Likelihood of going to second round: 65%
5th Muharraq
Areas covered: Northeast Muharraq; Amwaj Islands; Qalali
Number of candidates: 10
Front-runner: Mahmoud al-Mahmoud (MP)
Worth watching: Khalid Bu-Anq, Sami al-Shaer (NUG), Muhammed al-Dakhil, Ibrahim Ali
Outsiders: Abdulaziz al-Majid, Jamal Saad, Mohammed al-Jowder, Ahmed al-Mannai, Mohammed al-Faraj
Likelihood of going to second round: 75%
6th Muharraq
Areas covered: Dair & Samaheej
Number of candidates: 4
Front-runners: Abbas al-Madhi (MP)
Worth watching: Nabil al-Ashiri, Hassan al-Samaheeji
Outsiders: Abbas al-Faraj
Likelihood of going to second round: 50%
7th Muharraq
Areas covered: Arad
Number of candidates: 9
Front-runners: Nasir al-Fadhalah (Minbar), Ali al-Muqla (Asalah), Badr al-Hammadi (Watan)
Worth watching: Mohammed al-Sulaiti, Mohammed al-Wazzan, Khalid Ibrahim
Outsiders: Abdulrahman al-Khashram, Adel al-Mannai, Muhammad al-Mulla
Likelihood of going to second round: 90%
8th Muharraq
Areas covered: Southern Muharraq; Hidd
Number of candidates: 3
Front-runners: Samir Khadim (MP), Abdulrahman Bu-Ali
Worth watching: Abdullah Bughamar (Al-Saff)
Likelihood of going to second round: 60%
Housing blocks: 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 110, 111, 112, 113, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 121, 128
Registered voters: 9,065
1st Northern
Areas covered: Hilla, Meqsha, Karranah, Janusan, Barbar, Diraz
Number of candidates: 7
Front-runners: Ali al-Dirazi (MP)
Worth watching: Yassir Nassif, Hussain Habib, Jaffar al-Asfour
Outsiders: Fatimah al-Asfour, Mohammed Shehab, Mohammed Rabea
Likelihood of going to second round: 50%
2nd Northern
Areas covered: Markh, Bani Jamra, Diraz
Number of candidates: 3
Front-runners: Jalal Kadhim
Worth watching: Hussain al-Hamar, Fadhil al-Dirazi
Likelihood of going to second round: 45%
3rd Northern
Areas covered: Northern strip of west coast; Budayya, Haniniyah, Jasra, Hamala, Um Sabiyan, Um Na’san, Jiddah
Number of candidates: 6
Front-runners: Hassan al-Dossary (MP), Hamad al-Dossary, Firas Nouruddin
Worth watching: Adel al-Dossary
Outsiders: Mamdouh Marhoun, Abdulaziz al-Dhawadi
Likelihood of going to second round: 65%
4th Northern
Areas covered: Jidhafs, Jabla Habshi, North Sehla, Qadam, Abu-Quwwah
Number of candidates: 5
Front-runners: Huda Radhi, Ghazi Al Rahmah
Worth watching: Hussain Jawad
Outsiders: Nawaf al-Sayed, Mohammed al-Aleywi,
Likelihood of going to second round: 60%
5th Northern
Areas covered: Qadam, Hajar, Abu Saiba, Shakhurah, Muqaba, Diraz, Sar, Markh
Number of candidates: 10
Front-runners: Ali al-Aradi, Jamil al-Rowaei, Ahmed al-Najjar
Worth watching: Isa Taqi, Jamil al-Mahari, Hannan Abdulaziz
Outsiders: Nabil al-Lababidi, Mohammed Mohsin, Fadhil al-Harz, Mohammed Khalil,
Likelihood of going to second round: 75%
6th Northern
Areas covered: Aali
Number of candidates: 8
Front-runners: Mohammed Al Asfour, Mohammed al-Aali, Rua al-Haiki
Worth watching: Majid Saleh
Outsiders: Moayed Neamah, Ali al-Sayegh, Mohammed al-Bahhar, Younis Jassim
Likelihood of going to second round: 65%
7th Northern
Areas covered: Al-Qurayah, Janabiyah, Buri, Hamalah, Dumistan
Number of candidates: 9
Front-runners: Majid al-Majid, Abduljalil al-Aali
Worth watching: Mohammed Bin-Rajab, Ali Makki, Ahmed Hassan
Outsiders: Jamil Abbas, Ali Sakran, Munir Ibrahim, Majid Ibrahim
Likelihood of going to second round: 60%
8th Northern
Areas covered: Hamad Town
Number of candidates: 5
Front-runners: Adel al-Dhawadi (Minbar)
Worth watching: Isa Turki, Jassim Hijris
Outsiders: Maryam al-Mahrous, Bader al-Dossary
Likelihood of going to second round: 70%
9th Northern
Areas covered: Hamad Town
Number of candidates: 9
Front-runners: Ahmed Ali Arad (NUG); Abdulhamid al-Najjar
Worth watching: Yousif Zainal, Mohammed Baqer, Ahmed al-Qahiri
Outsiders: Hassan al-Alawi, Abdullah Tarrar, Ahmed Yousif, Mahmoud Abdulrahman
Likelihood of going to second round: 70%
10th Northern
Areas covered: Hamad Town
Number of candidates: 7
Front-runners: Khalid al-Maloud (MP Asalah) Mohammed al-Ammadi (MP Minbar), Sima al-Lengawi (NUG)
Outsiders: Saad Sultan, Abdulqadir Abduljalil, Hisham Rabeah, Khalid al-Zubari
Likelihood of going to second round: 85%
11th Northern
Areas covered: Hamad Town, Dar Kulayb
Number of candidates: 5
Front-runners: Mohammed Buqais (MP), Jamal Dawoud
Worth watching: Jaffar al-Hamiri, Thamir al-Qaran
Outsiders: Ali al-Fadhli
Likelihood of going to second round: 60%
12th Northern
Areas covered: Dumistan, Luzi, Karzakan, Malikiyah, Sadad, Shahrakan, Safariyah
Number of candidates: 6
Front-runners: Khalid Abdulaal (MP), Ali Fardan
Worth watching: Ali Baqer, Jamila al-Sammak
Outsiders: Abdulrazzaq Fardan, Ammad al-Sayed
Likelihood of going to second round: 70%
1st Southern
Areas covered: Isa Town
Number of candidates: 10
Front-runners: Adnan al-Maliki (MP Asalah), Jehan Mohammed (NUG), Khalid al-Shaer, Khalid al-Qattan (Minbar)
Worth watching: Salman al-Shaikh, Jaffar al-Kharaz
Outsiders: Ahmed al-Amer, Anwar Qambar, Abdulrahman Abdullah, Abdulghani al-Haiki
Likelihood of going to second round: 95%
2nd Southern
Areas covered: Isa Town, Zayid Town
Number of candidates: 8
Front-runner: Isa al-Qadhi (MP)
Worth watching: Faydh al-Sharqawi, Mohammed al-Ahmed, Abdulaziz Matar
Outsiders: Ahmed Matar, Mohammed al-Dhawadi, Ahmed al-Murbati, Yaqoub Nassim
Likelihood of going to second round: 85%
3rd Southern
Areas covered: North Riffa, Hajiat
Number of candidates: 6
Front-runner: Abdulhalim Murad (MP Asalah)
Worth watching: Hassan al-Ali, Mohammed al-Maloud, Mohammed al-Housani
Outsiders: Abdullah al-Hajji, Naji al-Dossary
Likelihood of going to second round: 55%
4th Southern
Areas covered: Nuwaidrat, Sanad, Hajiat
Number of candidates: 7
Front-runner: Mohammed al-Maarifi
Worth watching: Nabil al-Musaifar, Ashraf al-Assar
Outsiders: Faisal al-Bufalah, Abdulrahman Abdulkarim, Abdulhamid al-Shaikh, Ibrahim al-Mannai
Likelihood of going to second round: 65%
5th Southern
Areas covered: West Riffa, Haniniyah, Bukuwarah
Number of candidates: 6
Front-runners: Abdulrazzaq al-Hattab (Asalah), Fawzia Zainal
Worth watching: Nayef al-Jassim
Outsiders: Adel al-Rowaei, Mohammed Qarratah, Khalifa al-Ghanim
Likelihood of going to second round: 55%
6th Southern
Areas covered: Northern Riffa, Bukuwarah
Number of candidates: 9
Front-runners: Mohammed al-Buainain (Mithaq), Anis Buhindi
Worth watching: Layla Rajab (Al-Watani al-Hurr), Nawal al-Dossary, Abdullah Baqer, Salah Khalifa, Yousif al-Hamdan
Outsiders: Khalifa al-Dossary, Ibrahim Fakhro
Likelihood of going to second round: 75%
7th Southern
Areas covered: Nuwaidrat, West Riffa, Rawdhah
Number of candidates: 3
Front-runner: Abdullah Bin-Huwail (MP)
Worth watching: Ahmed al-Dossary, Anwar al-Mohammed
Disallowed candidates: Sharikh al-Dossary
Likelihood of going to second round: 35%
8th Southern
Areas covered: Southern Sitra, Ma’amir, East Riffa, Awali, Mazrowiyah, Askar, Jaw, Dawr
Number of candidates: 7
Front-runner: Jassim al-Saeedi (MP)
Worth watching: Dhiyab al-Noaimi
Outsiders: Noura Bushehri, Mohammed al-Sisi, Ali al-Rumaihi, Abdullah al-Azami, Mohammed al-Awdhani
Likelihood of going to second round: 45%
9th Southern
Areas covered: Southwest coast; Sakhir
Number of candidates: 5
Front-runners: Mohammed al-Quwwati (NUG), Mohsin al-Bakri, Yousif al-Dossary,
Worth watching: Mohammed al-Dossary, Mutib al-Dhawadi
Likelihood of going to second round: 60%
10th Southern
Areas covered: Southern Bahrain, Dawr & Hawar islands
Number of candidates: 2
Front-runner: Ahmed al-Mulla
Worth watching: Khalid al-Dossary
Likelihood of going to second round: 0%
Battle for Bahrain’s rural southern regions
Three constituencies take up around take up the entire southern half of Bahrain’s landmass, but are sparsely populated, with few significant population centres. As a result, the election dynamics of these tribal and rural areas are very different.
Constituency border changes have produced the somewhat odd constituency of 8th Southern, ranging from the opposition home turf of Sitra to the loyalist hearth of Riffa. The 8th Southern district lies to the south of Bahrain along the eastern coast. Despite its relatively large size, this is the constituency with the fourth lowest number of voters.
The expansion of this district has brought in a few Shia-majority areas, particularly to the north east in Sitra, which may help create opportunities for a more diverse range of public representatives.
After the failure of sitting MP Khamis al-Rumaihi to register, the dominant figure in the 8th Southern contest is outspoken Sunni Islamist MP, Jassim al-Saeedi.
A confident Al-Saeedi will be disappointed if he doesn’t get more than 50% in the initial vote and is therefore forced to face a second round. His rivals have so far not been conspicuously successful in gaining the kind of exposure which would allow them to pose a serious challenge to someone like Al-Saeedi. Dhiyab al-Noaimi has been one of the more visible candidates and has been sharply outspoken in attacking the performance of previous parliamentary representatives.
This contest in the 9th Southern district changed dramatically after incumbent MP for three terms, Abdullah al-Dossary, was appointed by the King as secretary-general of the Assembly of Deputies, necessitating Al-Dossary’s withdrawal from the contest.
Prominent candidates include Mohammed al-Quwwati from the National Unity Gathering; and former municipal councilors Mohsin al-Bakri and Yousif al-Dossary. Al-Quwwati has received a lot of media coverage, including a nearly-full page interview with Al-Watan.
Tribal and familial ties are everything in these traditionally-minded locations, hence the prevalence of certain family names among the candidates.
With 2,368 registered voters, the 10th Southern district is the constituency with by far the smallest number of voters in Bahrain (next smallest 9th Southern with 5,090 voters). 10th Southern includes the Hawar Islands whose ownership was previously contested with Qatar.
Latifa al-Gaoud has long held on to this constituency although she did not register to participate this time around.
An obvious replacement is sitting MP Ahmed al-Mulla who, as a result of the boundary changes, has now registered to compete in this region. As a result of withdrawals and candidacy rejections, he only now faces one opponent; Khalid al-Dossary.
This small but fierce contest ended up in court at the end of October, with Al-Dossary petitioning that Al-Mulla wasn’t qualified to stand in this constituency. The court ruled in Al-Mulla’s favour.
This campaign is taking place far from the eyes of the media and most Bahrainis and there has been little coverage of any sort of this campaign, although one or two observers speculated about whether Al-Dossary would decide to withdraw, once it became clear that Al-Mulla was contesting the seat.
8th Southern
Areas covered: Southern Sitra, Ma’amir, East Riffa, Awali, Mazrowiyah, Askar, Jaw, Dawr
Number of candidates: 7
Registered voters: 6,451
Jassim Ahmed Abdulkarim Isa al-Saeedi – Incumbent
Al-Saeedi: “I have a popular following in all constituencies and therefore these changes won’t affect my chances of winning”. Al-Saeedi is a controversial Sunni preacher who has been outspoken in attacking the opposition since the 2011 unrest. This led to charges of sectarianism, but has increased his public profile and if anything, intensified his support base. Saeedi has held a parliamentary seat since 2002, however, he is calling for “new blood” in the 2014 Parliament. @jassimalsaeedi
Dhiyab Mohammed Mohammed Dhiyab al-Noaimi
Al-Noaimi: “Our aim is to support the democratic process and entrench its values, as well as strengthening parliamentary life in our kingdom”. @Theyabalnoaimi
Al-Noiami said he will concentrate on housing and promoting career opportunities for young people. He said that Bahrainis had “despaired” of the poor performance of previous parliaments and said that voters would lose trust in the process if many of the same faces made it back into Parliament.
Mohammed Ibrahim Ali Muhanna al-Sisi al-Buaynayn
Al-Sisi: “Each generation has its own ideas. I’m from a different generation from previous deputies… it’s now our turn to move things forward. There is incomplete legislation that new needs new thinking in order to develop it.”
*Noura Mohammed Ali Mahmoud Abdulnabi Bushehri
Lawyer Bushehri wants to concentrate on increasing the incomes of pensioners, while improving employment prospects for recent graduates. Bushehri, who holds a Masters in criminal law, stressed the benefits of well-educated candidates, particularly those from a legal background.
Ali Abdullah Jumah al-Rumaihi
Al-Rumaihi said he wanted to concentrate on finding jobs for unemployed Bahrainis and assisting low-income families, as well as addressing the housing issue and providing more support for pensioners.
Abdullah Mohammed Saleh al-Azami
Al-Azami: “My primary motivation for candidacy is serving my nation and providing a better life for Bahraini citizens in all constituencies”. He stressed the importance of national unity. @vote4al3azmi
Mohammed Ibbad Mohammed Saleh al-Awdhani
Al-Awdhani has had little coverage in the media so far. However, his billboards have been up in the locality with the slogan “Together in the nation of love and peace”.
9th Southern
Areas covered: Southwest coast; Sakhir
Number of candidates: 5
Registered voters: 5,090
Mohammed Abdulqadir al-Qooti – NUG
Journalist and academic Al-Quwwati said that the National Unity Gathering wanted to “widen” the presence of the middle class in Bahrain. He also stressed the importance of raising standards of living and encouraging “family tourism” to Bahrain.
Al-Quwwati’s promotional material has highlighted the issue of fighting “financial and administrative corruption”. He has also called for a “national institution for strategic planning” for promoting economic growth.
Al-Quwwati has called for the establishment of a centre for cultivating a sense of national awareness and unity, for “building a stable, safe and progressive society”. @Mohamed_AlQooty
Yousif Fayhan Saleh al-Dossary
Yousif was a municipal councilor for two terms between 2002 and 2010. Al-Dossary called on the opposition to participate in the elections, citing the importance of “diversity and different views” in Parliament.
Mohsin Ali Mohammed Abdullah al-Bakri
Al-Bakri served for two terms as a municipal councilor and was head of the council during his second term. Al-Bakri observed that the absence of political societies like Al-Minbar and Al-Asalah in the 9th district created a greater opening for independents like him. Al-Bakri is to prioritize improving standards of living and greater scrutiny of spending of public funds.
In a full page interview with Al-Watan newspaper, he identified monitoring government performance and fighting corruption as his two most important priorities.
Mohammed Ahmed Abdullatif al-Dossary
Mohammed al-Dossary had been included as one of the four candidates from the Mithaq Society, which is part of the Al-Fateh Coalition. However, on 13 October he announced that he would be standing as an independent candidate. He told Al-Ayam newspaper that he was still a member of Al-Mithaq and “proud to be associated with it”. However, after canvassing views of constituents, “it became clear to me that people of the constituency didn’t accept candidates associated with political societies. Also my chances are better if I’m dissociated from Al-Mithaq Society or others”.
Mohammed clarified that if he was elected he would remain independent. “I will be close to all parties who collaborate to promote the reformist project, who preserve the established national fundamentals and who work to expand the margins of freedoms and democracy”.
Mutib Abdullah Dhahir Mutib al-Dhawadi
Al-Dhawadi, earlier in his campaign expressed his hope for support from one of the political societies. He pledged to continue with the work that the previous Parliament had begun.
10th Southern
Areas covered: Southern Bahrain, Dawr & Hawar islands
Number of candidates: 2
Registered voters: 2,368
Ahmed Ibrahim Rashid Rashid al-Mulla – Incumbent
Al-Mulla had been set to stand in the 7th Southern constituency. However, he changed his address after seeing how the constituency border changes “weakened his chances”. He subsequently told journalists that he had not wanted to stand against the head of his “Independents Bloc” Abdullah Bin-Huwail.
Al-Mulla said that in the coming Parliament he wanted to concentrate on economic legislation in order to promote growth. He commented that the previous Parliament had spent a far greater portion of its time on criminal and judicial matters.
Khalid Khalifa Ali al-Binghadir al-Dossary
Al-Dossary took his rival Al-Mulla to court claiming that he wasn’t legally entitled to stand in the 10th Southern constituency. Neither candidate has been particularly visible in the media putting forward constructive policy proposals.