9th Aug, 2012 –
We are hearing calls for coordinated protests across Bahrain & eastern Saudi Arabia. What does this tell us about the aims of activists in both Kingdoms?
Sectarian
The Middle East in mid-2012 is a profoundly more divided region than it was two years previously, as a result of tensions which are pulling our societies apart.
For example; audiences in the West following these “democratic Arab revolutions” may have expected protesters in Saudi and Bahrain to make common cause with fellow protesters in Syria. They have not. Bahrain protest leaders have either remained silent about massacres in Syria or have followed Iran’s lead in supporting Bashar al-Asad’s bloody regime.
This perfectly illustrates the sectarian dividing lines arising in the region. Protesters in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are now almost exclusively Shia and define their aims along sectarian lines. They are largely mobilized through Shia religious institutions and take their lead from religious leaders like Ayatollah Issa Qasim in Bahrain and Nimr al-Nimr in Saudi Arabia.
Bahrain’s political system is designed to avoid divisions along sectarian principles. However, many fear that the opposition’s suggested political reforms are designed to carve up the political nation along sectarian lines and establish a Shia hegemony over all other parts of Bahrain’s heterogeneous society. Likewise in Saudi Arabia, the ultimate aim appears to be for Shia dominance across the primary oil-producing areas of Saudi Arabia – constituting the lifeblood of the world’s economy.
In both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, there has been a backlash by hardliner Sunnis against what they see as primarily Shia movements. In the social media and Saudi-funded TV channels like Al-Safa and Al-Wisal, we are seeing dangerously sectarian incitement against the Shia. Meanwhile, moderates and intellectuals are tending to keep their heads down for fear of incurring the wrath of either side, and therefore we are failing to hear voices speaking out authoritatively against sectarianism, or efforts towards reconciliation.
Anti-monarchist
While in the early days of the uprising Bahraini protesters were publically calling for reform, the slogans we hear today in both countries are stark: Down with the King; Death to the ruling family; Down with the Regime.
This anti-monarchial trend rides roughshod over the other segments of our society which strongly support the monarchy, with its deep roots in our cultural traditions. Supporters of the Bahraini and Saudi Royal Families see the monarchial system as the best guarantor against sectarian divisions, extremism and instability.
Terrorist methods, extremist aspirations
In both Kingdoms we have seen a readiness to launch attacks against the security forces; vandalize public property and increasingly resort to terrorist tactics. British experts are now assisting the Bahraini authorities in investigating a substantive bomb-making factory. The danger is that with close ties between Shia families in these two countries tactics and bomb-making techniques will be exchanged and innovations will continue to thrive, stretching the capacity of the security forces to manage the threats from militant elements.
In Bahrain the protest movement imploded – from being a genuinely mass movement which included diverse sections of society, to becoming a much smaller and narrower sectarian entity. Progressives, Sunnis, students, intellectuals and the middle classes abandoned the movement en masse, alienated by its increasingly radical and anti-democratic tendencies. This left the door open for militant elements to increasingly dominate the direction of travel of the opposition. A similar trend towards radicalization and extremism is not-unlikely in Saudi Arabia, as we hear news of fatal attacks on Saudi police officers.
Pro-Iran
Hezbollah flags and huge portraits of Iran’s religious leaders has long been a familiar element of opposition rallies in both countries – although Bahrain’s oppositionists were smart enough to remove these from the public eye when global media attention was focused on Bahrain in February last year.
A large proportion of Shia in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia rely on Iranian Arabic language propaganda outlets like Al-Alam to get their news and for shaping public opinion. Such channels have run a non-stop campaign of incitement and sectarian hatred since last year, grotesquely distorting their coverage of events in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Iranian proxy groups in Lebanon and Iraq have been highly active and vocal in agitating about the situation in Bahrain.
Few doubt that Iran is substantially supporting the rioting and violence in both countries; evidenced by the slick and well-funded media campaigns of these opposition movements with a close resemblance to media efforts of Iranian proxies elsewhere; as well as Iran’s own public statements, stridently attacking Saudi Arabia and describing Bahrain as a province of Iran.
Theocratic not-democratic
In the early days of the 2011 uprising the Bahrain opposition at least paid lip-service to democratic principles. However, non-sectarian and progressive figures have disappeared from the scene and are replaced by an illiberal and anti-democratic religious leadership.
Many protesters openly acknowledge that their actions are about following the leadership of religious leaders like Ayatollah Issa Qasim who uphold the principle of welayat al-faqih – Ayatollah Khomeini’s philosophy of rule by leading clerics. This does not bode well for the kind of governance we could expect if such elements swept to power at any time in the future.